Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 220749 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 349 AM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will push off to the east through this afternoon. A low pressure system will lift out of the lower Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley Monday into Tuesday. This will bring a chance of showers to the region through the first part of the work week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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IR satellite imagery showing fairly widespread enhanced high level moisture across the area this morning. Expect this trend to continue through this morning, resulting in mostly cloudy skies. As we get into this afternoon, it looks like some of the higher level moisture will start to thin out, particularly across the north, possibly allowing for some increasing sunshine. 850 mb temperatures are forecast to slowly rise through the day, but the combination of northeasterly surface flow and the high level clouds, could make temperatures a little tricky today. Will generally range highs from the lower 60s across the northwest to the mid to upper 60s in the southeast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
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A stacked low over the lower Mississippi Valley tonight will lift slowly northeast into the western Tennessee Valley through the day on Monday. Moisture associated with this will push slowly northeast toward our area tonight with deeper moisture spreading in from the south through the day on Monday. This will lead to thickening clouds with showers spreading into our southern areas Monday morning and then across the remainder of our area through Monday afternoon. Lows tonight will range from the mid 40s in the north to the lower 50s in the south. The warmest temperatures on Monday will be across our north, where the thicker clouds/pcpn will arrive the latest. Will range highs on Monday from near 60 in our southwest to mid 60s across our far north.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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The first couple of periods in the extended will be characterized by cool and wet conditions as an upper level low moves overhead. Monday night the upper level low will be centered over the Tennessee/ Kentucky border with rain ongoing across the region. Through the day Tuesday the upper level low will be overhead allowing showers to continue. The GFS and NAM does have some weak instability (actually GFS forecast soundings are little bit more impressive than the NAM), but for the most part it is transient and confined towards the Ohio River. For now have just scaled back the chance of thunder given the forecast soundings and position of the vertically stacked low. Tuesday night into Wednesday a potent upper level disturbance will be pushing southeast out of Ontario with the upper level low that was over the Ohio Valley ejecting northeast. The GFS, NAM, and CMC all have the low (and precipitation) moving out of the area Wednesday morning while the ECMWF holds onto precipitation through Wednesday. Either way the GFS has precipitation filling back in as the upper level disturbance over Ontario moves over Michigan. Due to this have kept the chance of precipitation through Wednesday afternoon for most of the area. Thursday has now trended drier as the upper level disturbance that was over Michigan exits the area. This will put Ohio on the back side of the low and in brief subsidence/ drier air (GFS PWATs around 0.30"). Mostly clear skies and highs in the lower 60s will make for a pleasant Thursday. Past the Thursday period, models quickly diverge as another upper level low dives south out of Canada. The general idea is that the upper level low will dive southeast and push a cold front through the area Friday into Saturday. Significant differences between models exist here though. The ECMWF is weakest with the upper level disturbance and slower with the front (pushing it through Friday evening). The GFS and CMC are much stronger and wrap up the upper level low and occlude it over the area. This allows for significant differences in models to propogate through the remainder of the extended. For now have kept Saturday afternoon through Sunday mostly dry. If the GFS and CMC are to be believed precipitation might hold on through Saturday.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Mid to high level clouds will persist through tonight with VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings will be possible Monday night into Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Haines AVIATION...JGL

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