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FXUS61 KILN 031848
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
248 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected through
the weekend along with muggy conditions. Additional thunderstorms
are possible into the middle of next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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Light shower activity may continue late this afternoon/early this
evening in the unsettled and weakly unstable environment across the
Ohio Valley. While a few thunderstorms cannot completely be ruled
out prior to sunset, persistent cloud cover and light rain earlier
today has kept instability to a minimum.

For the overnight, a weak cold front will attempt to drop in the
from the north before stalling over northern Ohio. At most, only
expecting a few degree temperature drop as some northeasterly flow
tries to develop. However, winds could end up mainly remaining light
and variable overnight since weak pressure gradient stays over the
region. Some shower chances persist tonight and forecast lows are
generally in the 60s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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A weak stalled front is expected to lift north of the area on
Saturday. Warm, humid conditions will be in place as southerly flow
redevelops leading to highs near 80 during the afternoon.
Instability should accompany the muggy conditions Saturday
afternoon/evening bringing the chance for showers and thunderstorms.
If a weak shortwave does end up moving through on Saturday, fairly
widespread shower and thunderstorm coverage could develop. Severe
chances remain low since shear is weak and DCAPE remains moderate to
low in the moist, saturated sounding. Locally heavy downpours are
likely since PWATs will be high. Additionally, brief gusty winds are
possible in the strongest storms in the this summer-like setup.

Shower/storm chances continue on Saturday night due to the possible
development of an upper level shortwave and the approach of a cold
front to the northwest. Brief, locally heavy rain remains the
biggest threat since instability and shear are weak. Southwesterly
winds persist along with warm and muggy conditions.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A wet period is indicated as persistent moisture advection couples
with waves of low pressure. Relatively slow moving systems will
allow showers to linger, with brief dry interludes separating
batches of showers. Precipitable water remaining above an inch will
be feeding the showers.

For Sunday, the first wave of low pressure will be tracking to the
Great Lakes, resulting in widespread showers and a few
thunderstorms. Much the same can be expected for Monday, though most
showers may shift south, closer to a disturbance over the Southern
Appalachians. A relative lull in precipitation is forecast for
Tuesday as high pressure builds in between disturbances.

Two more potent waves of low pressure could impact the region on
Wednesday and Thursday. There should be a better chance for severe
thunderstorms as stronger winds enhance storm strength and
structure.  Showers and thunderstorms may linger on Friday as
another disturbance crosses the Appalachians.

Temperatures are likely to stay above normal through the long term,
with some fluctuation with respect to advection around weather
systems. Highs will generally be in the mid 70s to low 80s Sunday
through Thursday, before readings slip to the upper 60s to mid 70s
on Friday under a modest decrease in geopotential heights.
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&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR ceilings and shower activity continue this afternoon before
showers diminish in coverage this evening. Thunderstorms are not out
of the realm of possibility this afternoon, but the lack of
instability keeps TS or VCTS a low probability of occurrence and out
of the TAFs. VFR ceilings may lower into the MVFR range after 0600z
in areas south of an approaching cold front (KDAY, KILN, KLUK,
KCVG). Lowered ceilings, should they form, may persist into the
morning although ceilings tend to lift toward late morning with the
high sun angle in May.

Southwesterly winds may persist for the first part of the afternoon
in some locations before becoming light and variable this evening
and through the overnight. Southeasterly winds develop after 1200z
Saturday.


OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible at times through Tuesday. MVFR
conditions are possible again Sunday morning.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...Campbell
SHORT TERM...Campbell
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...Campbell