Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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530 FXUS61 KILN 170747 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 347 AM EDT Tue Apr 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Surface high pressure will build into the region this afternoon into tonight. Lingering snow showers will end this morning followed by decreasing clouds. A low pressure system will track across the area at midweek, offering a chance of rain showers Wednesday and Thursday. A large area of high pressure will build into the Great Lakes for the end of the week into next weekend providing dry weather conditions. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Large double centered mid level low over the Great Lakes region. Initial low/lobe to pivot east as second low drops southeast through the Great Lakes today. Snow showers associated with the initial lobe are exiting the area moving from eastern Ohio into western PA. Scattered flurries were persisting behind this pcpn due to CAA and saturation in the dendritic growth zone. These flurries will come to an end this morning as the flow begins to transition to anti-cyclonic. A few snow showers will linger a ltl longer over the northeast counties as second low drops through the Great lakes. Clouds will from southwest to northeast this afternoon with clearing taking place late in the day in the northeast counties. Temperatures are starting out at or below freezing across the south this morning. So will continue freeze warning across the area where the frost/freeze program has started. Temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees below normal with highs from the lower 40s north to the mid 50s south. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... Surface high pressure will build into the area overnight. Clouds will decrease through the aftn into this evening. This clearing will be brief as warm advection clouds overspread the area later tonight ahead of a surface low and developing warm front. Lows tonight to range from the upper 20s north to near 40 south where clouds will be thickest. There is a strip of counties across the central portion of ILN/s FA where the frost/freeze program has began that may approach freezing tonight. It looks like the arrival of clouds may keep temperatures just above freezing. Developing surface low to track from the central plains into the mid MS VLY Wednesday and then across the area Wed night. Trends are a little slower so have a chance of showers holding off until Wednesday afternoon with the best chance across the north. On the warm side of the system temperatures to reach highs from the upper 50s northwest to near 70 southeast. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... An upper trough will continue to be positioned over Eastern North America, and with the area under a northwest flow aloft, temperatures will stay cooler than normal and there will be a general lack of deep moisture transport and forcing, greatly limiting the chances for heavy precip or severe weather. Low pressure will be traveling across Northern Ohio Wednesday night, before moving to the East Coast on Thursday. Showers will be possible, mainly over northern locations, and snow may mix in Thursday night as precip is departing. A large area of high pressure and dry weather are forecast to build in Friday, and according to latest models, this gradually evolving system will remain over the region through the weekend and into Monday. For late Monday, low pressure lifting from the south may bring a few showers south of Cincinnati. Temperatures start 15 degrees below normal Thursday when highs are forecast to reach about 50. A slow rise toward normal will then be evident, with highs climbing through the 50s Saturday and Sunday to the near normal mid 60s Monday. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Elongated mid level low pressure to rotate through the Great Lakes today. Snow showers/flurries will come to an end this morning as this system pulls away from the area. Expect MVFR CIGs at times early improving to VFR from west to east. These clouds will scatter out this afternoon as surface high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley. West winds will gust close to 30 kts at times today. Winds will drop off tonight as the surface high builds into the area. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Wednesday and then again Thursday. Wind gusts 25 kt or higher possible Thursday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for OHZ060>065- 070>074-077>082-088. KY...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for KYZ089>100. IN...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for INZ058-059-066- 073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...AR

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