Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 152356 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 756 PM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will slowly move across the region through Monday night. A high will briefly build in on Tuesday, but another low will move into the Great Lakes later Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Showers across the region will decrease in coverage as they slowly push east late this afternoon into this evening. Stronger echoes/higher rainfall rates will continue across the far eastern counties, so a flood/flash flood threat remains for at least the next several hours. Lighter showers may linger from Columbus eastward until near midnight. Elsewhere across the forecast area, cannot rule out a spotty shower moving through during much of the night. Heading towards morning, there may be a bit better chance of showers heading into the forecast area. The boundary layer will have cooled sufficiently for any precipitation late tonight being snow. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Upper low will move across the area on Monday. This will keep cloudy and very cool conditions. There will be very little diurnal rise with highs more than 20 degrees below normal. In addition, winds will be gusty which will bring wind chills into the 20s to lower 30s. Scattered showers will occur with the low passage. There will be snow showers, although some places may warm enough in the low levels for this to mix with or change to rain. Amounts will be very light. Deep northwest flow combined with another disturbance dropping down the back side of the closed low Monday night will bring more scattered snow showers to the region with greater coverage across the northern counties. This could result in some light accumulations particularly from west central to central Ohio. Low will drop to near freezing area wide. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... During the day Tuesday the vertically stacked upper level low over the New York/ Canadian border will continue to slowly pull northeast. As this occurs surface high pressure will move in from the northwest. Clouds Tuesday will likely be slow to clear with highs near 50 degrees across northern Kentucky and mid 40s towards Columbus. Tuesday night into Wednesday the next upper level low will push east across the Midwest with a warm front lifting north across the region Wednesday morning. Precipitation along the warm front looks limited as substantial dry air was observed in GFS forecast soundings around 700 to 500 MB. As the upper level low and corresponding surface low swings east across the Michigan/ Ohio border a surface cold front will also push through the region. During the day Wednesday the area is forecast to be in the warm sector with a warm up in store for the region. Timing differences with the corresponding cold frontal passage remain significant though with the GFS keeping as the fastest model. The ECMWF and the NAM are the slowest while the CMC is a good compromise. The CMC clears the front through the region very early Thursday morning. Have kept the trend towards a slight lowering in the PoPs as the atmosphere looks moisture deficient and weak in the way of lift. To be more precise, surface convergence along the front looks very weak as a prefrontal boundary will sweep out in front of the main cold front. There is a good wedge of PVA with the main upper level low, so have kept higher PoPs generally across the northern areas of the region. Thursday into Friday the upper level low will accelerate east as it merges with another upper level low over Quebec. This means surface high pressure will build into the plains allowing for clearing skies and warming temperatures Friday into Saturday. Saturday night into Sunday another upper level low will eject out of the western United States and approach the Ohio Valley. Significant model differences exist here with the ECMWF being slower than the GFS and the CMC being in between the two. Overall the track looks to be towards Kentucky/ Tennessee so have kept higher PoPs across our southern zones for Sunday. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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The back edge of the more steady rain is making a slow eastward push and has pretty much made it through KCMH/KLCK. However, there are still some lighter showers along the back edge so will hang on to a tempo -shra for them for the next couple of hours. Otherwise, MVFR cigs across the area early this evening may bump up into VFR for a period but do expect them to drop back down into MVFR overnight as we get into some better low level CAA. These MVFR clouds will then likely persist through the remainder of the TAF period. An upper level disturbance moving across the area will also lead to some scattered rain/snow showers late tonight and into the day on Monday and will cover these with a VCSH at this point. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible Thursday and Thursday night. Wind gusts 25 kt or higher possible Thursday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for OHZ056-065- 074. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Haines AVIATION...JGL

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