Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 190608
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
208 AM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure will move through the Ohio Valley
tonight, with a cold front also crossing the region, bringing
another round of cool air by Thursday morning. Some light snow
is possible Thursday morning, as a mid-level shortwave moves
east through the Great Lakes. High pressure will move into the
area by Friday and into the weekend, with dry conditions and
gradually warming temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Showers exiting eastern CWA will only linger for the next hour
or two and be followed by a longer break in the precipitation
than was earlier expected. Very little upstream observations are
showing the next batch of rain and/or snow showers from the cold
air push currently working in. Have expanded the area and time
interval of the non-weather period until this area of light rain
and/or snow comes in later overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
Dry northerly flow will continue on Thursday, which should help
to gradually erode the stratocumulus clouds, allowing for some
breaks by the second half of the day -- particularly over
Indiana and northwest Ohio. Persistent cold advection, even with
some sun getting through, will keep temperatures in the middle
40s to around 50. This is 15-20 degrees below normal.

With a chilly starting point and increasingly favorable skies
heading into the evening, a freeze may be possible on Thursday
night into Friday morning. It looked a little marginal (temps in
the lower 30s) for a third-period freeze watch, but this was
discussed among other NWS offices, so it is possible a headline
may be needed in the future.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
First half of the extended period will see benign weather has a
large surface high pressure system settles over the midwest. Friday
is looking mostly sunny with temperatures rising to the the lower to
mid 50s.

High clouds will begin to increase on Saturday as upper level
moisture is forecast to still over the H5 ridge. Highs will push
into the mid to upper 50s.

Over the weekend, models push an upper level low out of the southern
Rockies and into the southern Mississippi Valley. The upper low
begins to fill as this occurs.  Due to the southern track, the
precipitation stays south of the region through the weekend. highs
on Sunday will warm into the lower to mid 60s.

As the models eject what is left of the low to the East Coast on
Monday, some of the precipitation is pulled north into the region.
Models are showing differences in how much and exactly where the
pcpn will be, but there is enough certainty to put some low PoPs in
the forecast for Monday into Tuesday.

By Wednesday and H5 s/w drops down from the nrn Mississippi Valley.
It merges with the initial upper low to bring additional chances of
rain. Highs will generally be in the 60s for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Sharp mid level trof and secondary surface cold front to pivot
through Ohio this morning. Scattered rain showers will mix with
and change to snow showers with the best coverage across
KCMH/KLCK. MVFR ceilings will drop down to IFR for a period
toward sunrise. With the passage of this trof clouds will
improve to MVFR after sunrise and then VFR this afternoon.
Surface high pressure will begin to nose in overnight allowing
skies to clear.

West to northwest winds will gust up to 25 kts today and then
become north at less than 10 kts tonight.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hatzos
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...Hatzos
LONG TERM...Sites
AVIATION...AR



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