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000
FXUS63 KIND 152356
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
756 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated thunderstorms possible this in the far southwest, with additional
  storms developing tonight. Some hail is possible with these
  storms.
- Storms expected Tuesday night with a few stronger storms possible
- Higher potential for severe weather Wednesday afternoon
- Trending colder into the weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Tuesday)...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Warmth will continue through the short term period with highs
ranging from the 70s into the 80s. Tonight and tomorrow will see a
return to shower and thunderstorm potential along a front residing
over the area. Higher dew points already reside over the southern
portion of the area near the front and overnight could see higher
lapse rates and CAPE. Models continue to show storms forming, likely
isolated with some linear fashion to them. The stronger storms could
produce damaging winds and hail at times, prompting a marginal
severe risk.

Storms could linger into Tuesday as the front lifts northward and an
approaching low moves in, allowing central Indiana to be in the warm
sector for much of the day tomorrow. A few storms could be stronger
but largely the threat for severe will be after 8pm tomorrow and
into the long term period. Within the warm sector there will likely
be a few hours without precipitation during the afternoon or early
evening ahead of the cold front associated with the approaching low.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday night through Monday)...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Tuesday Night Through Thursday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat
will continue into the overnight hours Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Coverage will be highest through midnight with a gradual ending of
thunderstorms from west to east towards daybreak. Model soundings
show a nearly moist adiabatic lower atmosphere which will limit the
instability to near 0 as the thunderstorms cross into Indiana.
Expect the severe threat to gradually taper later into the night,
but any storm complexes that are able to build a strong cold pool
will likely last longer than models currently show.

On Wednesday the upper level low that brought the first round of
storms will continue to push towards the Great Lakes with a surface
cold front expected to move through during the late morning to early
afternoon hours. A thin line of thunderstorms is expected along the
front with the potential for additional damaging wind gusts and a
lower threat for large hail. Will have to watch the potential for
isolated cells ahead of the line across southern Indiana where the
low level environment has a favorable shear profile for tornadoes.
There doesn`t look to be much to initiate thunderstorms outside the
front but any thunderstorm that does manage to remain discrete will
need to be closely watched.  Precipitation will come to an end by
the evening hours with a brief break in precipitation expected for
Thursday.

Friday Through Monday.

The weather pattern remains active Friday into the early weekend
with the next round of showers moving in late Thursday night into
Friday along a weak front but a lack of moisture will keep rainfall
amounts light with no hazardous weather expected outside of an
isolated thunderstorm. The front is expected to stall south of the
forecast area which should keep Saturday and Sunday dry but if the
front stalls further to the north, some low POPs may be needed.
Colder weather is expected Saturday through Monday with the
potential for patchy frost Sunday night into Monday as temperatures
drop into the mid 30s. Winds looks to remain towards 10 mph which
would limit an already marginal temperature environment in the near
surface.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 756 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Impacts:

- Winds shifting from generally NE to more easterly by tomorrow
morning to S by early tomorrow afternoon

- Wind gusts upwards of 20-28 kts Tuesday afternoon and evening

- Scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm overnight and into
the morning at HUF and BMG

Discussion:

Mainly VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with the
exception of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms late tonight
and then again after 00z Tuesday evening.

Weak frontal boundary stretched across Southern Indiana will push
northward as a warm front overnight. Widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms, already observed near the Ohio River, will develop
along this front as it moves northward through the state. Lower
confidence in how widespread convection may be as ample dry air
ahead of this front will likely limit shower and thunderstorm
coverage. Best chances for any shower or storm are currently at KBMG
and KHUF, but cannot rule it out either at KIND. Best timing for
storms near TAF sites will be after 06z through around 12-15z
Tuesday morning. Expect VFR conditions and easterly winds around or
under 10 kts outside of any shower or storm.

A break in the threat for storms likely arrives mid morning and
persists through the day as the warm front moves north of the region
and any convection associated with the cold front remains to the
west until around 00z Tuesday evening. Mainly VFR conditions
expected during the day Tuesday, however expect winds to increase
and become southerly. Daytime mixing, increasing low level lapse
rates, and a strengthening low level jet will create an environment
conducive for higher wind gusts to mix down to the surface. Expect
southerly winds to pick up to 10-15 kts late morning with gusts of
20-28 kts likely. Expect these winds to continue into Tuesday night
ahead of the approaching cold front.

The threat for showers and thunderstorms increases from west to east
after 00z Tuesday with the best threat for storms 00z-06z for
Central Indiana TAF sites. A few storms may be strong to severe with
strong winds, hail, and lightning being the main threats.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...CM