Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000 FXUS63 KIND 232232 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 632 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly clear tonight allowing for another freeze. - A gusty to windy Monday will bring one other day in the 60s - Moderate to heavy rainfall expected Monday Night-Tuesday Night && .SHORT TERM (This evening through Sunday)... Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Rest of Today and Tonight... CAA through a moderate northerly wind has lead to low level height rises over the Ohio Valley throughout the day, aiding in drying out the near surface with mid 20 dew points. This has combated the CAA slightly given efficient diurnal warming, leading to highs in the mid to upper 40s across the area. The steep low level lapse rates beneath the ridge have lead to an area of flat diurnal cumulus, primary over N/W portions of the state. These clouds should dissipate quickly this evening, leaving mostly clear skies outside of some passing upper level cirrus. An incoming low level ridge through height rises have dampen gusts, leaving a sustained 10-15MPH northerly wind. This should continue to diminish overnight as the ridge axis nears. Current expectation is for sustained winds out of the N/NNE between 5-8MPH overnight. Courser grid models have picked up on a subtle mid to upper level shortwave within the polar jet, of which is currently over MO/IA. This will push eastward overnight, providing enough lift for increased mid to upper level clouds and even a few showers over IL. These showers should evaporate as they reach Indiana with the low level ridge still well established over the region. Still, an increase in cloud cover is expected; with the only impact being a slightly higher than expected low temperature for tonight. Tomorrow... Tomorrow we begin to transition into a warmer air regime with the low level ridge passing off to the east and a deeper upper level trough approaching from the west. Initially winds will veer towards E/SE, with hint of WAA. This along with the dry surface layer remaining should allow for temperatures to increase into the mid 50s for most of central Indiana. The approaching trough will also increase winds, with some gusts by the afternoon. && .LONG TERM (Sunday night through Saturday)... Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024 An upper trough will be making its way towards the region early in the long term period, bringing gusty winds and beneficial rain. The associated surface low will swing through the central plains and track NNE over the upper Great Lakes and into Canada. Tight pressure gradients will form along the leading edge of the low and its cold front, allowing for breezy winds both Monday and Tuesday that could see sustained winds up to 25 mph and gusts up to 37 mph. Latest models are showing a slightly later arrival of the rain, which is now expected to arrive sometime Monday afternoon into the evening hours. PWATs of up to 1.5 inches will still be possible, leading to a good chance of a decent amount of rain with this system. At the moment central Indiana could see widespread amounts above 0.75 inches. Lightning and localized heavy rain and flooding are the main threats for the moment. The front itself is set to move through late Tuesday, behind which a surface high will quickly move in behind it, bringing with it dry air. Quiet weather is expected through the rest of the week as the high lingers around. The next chance of rain comes at the end of the week but confidence is low at this time. Temperatures will vary some through the period, starting off warm with highs in the 60s on Monday, followed by the coolest day Wednesday which is expected to see highs from the mid 40s to low 50s. Temps will warm back up into the 60s to near 70 by the weekend. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
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Issued at 632 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Impacts: - Winds veering to E/SE Sunday with gusts peaking at 20-25kts Discussion: Diurnal cu has largely diminished early this evening as the region remains under the influence of a high pressure ridge centered to the northeast. This will promote veering to an E/NE flow overnight with gusts set to dissipate by sunset. An area of mid level clouds associated with a weak wave aloft will pivot across the lower Great Lakes late tonight and Sunday morning. Clouds will diminish on Sunday as drier air overspreads the Ohio Valley. Surface flow will veer to E/SE and become gusty as the pressure gradient tightens in response to developing low pressure over the central Plains. Mid and high clouds will increase once again Sunday night.
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&& .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Updike LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...Ryan

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