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654
FXUS63 KIWX 121036
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
636 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Sunny and warm today with highs in the 70s.

- Showers and scattered storms Monday and Tuesday.

- Dry Wednesday then chances for for showers and storms Thursday
through Saturday with highs in the 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

A surface ridge lingered over the area with light winds early
this morning. Chilly air, light winds and clear skies had
allowed temperatures to drop well down into the 40s over most
areas. Temperatures will recover quickly today as the shallow
cold air mixes out and return flow taps into warm air just
upstream. Diurnal rises should range from 30 to 35 degrees
across the entire forecast area. Temperatures may reach 80 in
the Monticello area.

Ahead for the rest of the upcoming week, a pair of upper level
systems will bring showers and scattered storms. The 2 windows
for these systems are Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening
and Thursday afternoon through early Saturday. The initial
system was over Colorado early this morning. This upper low will
drift east ahead of an increasing moist environment. Although
no distinct atmospheric river is expected, precipitable will
rise to between 1.20 and 1.55" for both of these systems which
is in about the 95th percentile for this time of year. Tall,
thin CAPEs are expected with max values likely topping out at
less than 800 J/Kg. Given very limited instability, lack of an
EML (Elevated Mixed Layer) and low shear, severe storms are not
expected at all this coming week. Locally heavy rain is likely
which will bring rises on rivers and possibly bring a few of the
more flashy rivers into action stage or minor flood stage like
North Manchester, Portland and Spy Run.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 634 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Westerly wind gusts
after 15z Sun up to 20 kts possible through 00z Mon. Increasing
clouds after 00z Mon with light rain showers for KSBN after 02z
Mon.
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&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...Andersen