-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
169
FXUS64 KJAN 051458
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
958 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
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Issued at 949 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Showers and thunderstorms extend just west of the Mississippi
River, as a short wave moves into the area. These storms are
weakening, but expect some redevelopment early this afternoon.
As these storms redevelop this afternoon a couple of these storms
could be strong to possibly severe, with damaging wind gusts and
hail being the primary risk. A marginal risk is already in effect
for most of the area, except the Pine Belt Region. Highs today
will range from the low 80s in Northeast Louisiana to near 90 in
the east./15/
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 440 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Today and Tonight: Patchy dense fog will be possible in areas of the
pine belt this morning, thus a limited threat continues through
9am. In addition isolated rain and storm chances will be possible
this morning in the west/northwest as another shortwave trough
approaches the area. Continued rain and storm chances will be
possible this afternoon and evening in the (30-50%) range areawide
as the wave continues to move east. Expect convection to be
isolated to scattered as remnant storm activity in the high plains
will be the main factor, as redevelopment will be possible in our
area as heating occurs and instability increases by mid-day. Thus
a marginal risk for severe storms has already been added to the
HWO with the main threats being an isolated threat for damaging
winds and hail. Previous marginal threat areas have been expanded
to cover a majority of the CWA excluding the pine belt. Afternoon
high temperatures will range from the low-80s in the west to the
high-80s in the east. Look for convective activity to wane
overnight, and this could be followed by the redevelopment of fog
as we go into early Monday morning. /KP/

Monday through Saturday: A very warm and moist airmass will help to
fuel an increasingly active weather pattern over the lower
Mississippi Valley region. This will especially be the case as we
go into mid week, when the concern for severe weather and heavy
rainfall could be on the increase. The upper level longwave
pattern to begin the work week will feature an impressive trough
over the western half of the CONUS and an anomalously warm
southeastern ridge with H850 T up to around 20 deg C. High
temperatures will likely reach the lower 90s for much of the
forecast area by Wednesday afternoon, and heat indices should
approach 100 F.

As we go from Wednesday into Thursday, the westerlies should begin
to have more influence, and this would lead to increased convective
potential as a cold front moves southward into our area. Initially,
convective systems and associated cold pools/outflow boundaries
will most likely impact northwest to northern portions of the
area, and then areas farther south along/south of the I-20
corridor would be impacted late Thursday into Friday. Given the
very unstable airmass associated with the anomalously hot and
humid conditions, at least some threat for strong to severe storms
and perhaps heavy rainfall can be expected.

For Friday into Saturday, a big change is expected in the
longwave pattern with a western ridge to eastern trough taking
shape. This will support a big surge of cooler air into the
forecast area and much drier conditions. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Beginning around 8Z a possible round of patchy dense fog will impact
southeastern TAF sites through 15Z as high moisture and low winds
will make it east for fog development.Some light SHRA & iso TSRA
are psbl Sunday aftn, and may lower categories at TAF sites
GLH/GTR/GWO briefly before improving back to VFR. There are also
low probabilities at JAN/HKS/HEZ this afternoon through this
evening./KP/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Jackson       85  67  85  69 /  50  50  30  10
Meridian      89  65  87  67 /  60  40  30   0
Vicksburg     83  67  85  70 /  50  50  30  10
Hattiesburg   88  67  88  70 /  40  20  30   0
Natchez       82  66  85  69 /  50  30  30   0
Greenville    82  68  84  71 /  60  70  30  10
Greenwood     85  67  85  70 /  70  70  40  10
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&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

15/