Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000 FXUS64 KJAN 252156 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 456 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 ...New DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 456 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Through tonight: All continues to be on track concerning the near term severe weather event as a linear convective system evolves over northeast Louisiana and southeast Arkansas ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. The warm sector environment in this area is characterized by extreme wind shear with effective SRH of 500-700 m2/s2, modest instability with ~500 to 1000 j/kg of MLCAPE, and an influx of mid/upper 60s sfc dewpoints. Expect the strongest convergence zone and this associated environment to shift east through tonight across central/eastern MS, and timing in our graphic has been updated to reflect a slightly slower trend in the CAM guidance. An enhanced risk for mesovortices producing damaging wind gusts/tornadoes continues to be the primary concern in the messaging, and the extreme shear will promote the potential for a few strong tornadoes as well. In addition, we are also maintaining the wind advisory through the evening along with a hazard graphic for localized flash flooding. /EC/ Tuesday through Sunday: Following the early week system, a dry and cool airmass will persist through mid week. The airmass will modify as a ridge builds over the central CONUS late this week into the weekend, but we should maintain rain-free weather. /EC/
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&& .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 117 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Strong southerly flow will bring reduced ceilings, and will fuel a squall line that will track across the area from west to east late this afternoon through the evening and into the overnight. Expect strong gradient winds, the potential for +TSRA, and MVFR category ceilings to be the primary concerns this forecast period until the squall line passes. VFR conditions will return from west to east late tonight and Tuesday morning. /EC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Jackson 57 72 45 66 / 100 10 0 0 Meridian 57 77 47 69 / 100 40 0 0 Vicksburg 53 69 43 64 / 100 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 59 79 49 73 / 90 30 0 0 Natchez 54 71 45 66 / 90 0 0 0 Greenville 53 65 42 61 / 100 0 0 0 Greenwood 55 68 42 64 / 100 0 0 0
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&& .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for MSZ018-019-025>066- 072>074. LA...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for LAZ007>009-015-016- 023>026. AR...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for ARZ074-075. && $$ EC

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