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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS64 KJAN 130718 AAC
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
218 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 956 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Rest of tonight...

Another quiet night is on tap as mean ridging aloft to the west
keeps dry northwest flow around & 1025mb sfc high pressure progged
to build across the Gulf Coast region this evening. Water
vapor/RAP analysis indicate longwave trough axis moving across the
Atlantic seaboard while deepening ridge amplifies across the
Plains into the Rockies/Intermountain West. Dry air around half
inch, which will keep sky cover clear, other than passing high
clouds from shortwave ascent across west TX. With sfc high progged
to build over the region tonight, gradient winds will fall near
calm overnight. Efficient radiational cooling is expected, with
seasonably cool lows again in the mid-upper 40s southeast of the
Natchez Trace corridor while low 50s to the northwest. Kept
persistence fcst this evening update, leaning again towards cool
consensus, which verified well this morning. Updates will be out
shortly. /DC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Tonight through Friday: Surface high pressure will shift east
across the forecast area tonight and then east of the area
Saturday. This will bring dry and quiet weather conditions with
temperatures tonight quite cool, and there could be a few areas
of fog given the ideal cooling conditions over eastern/southern
MS. Temperatures will rebound strongly Saturday under mostly
sunny skies in what will be a well-mixed airmass. /EC/

Saturday night through Thursday night: An upper-level ridge and
surface high pressure will continue to migrate over the
southeastern CONUS for Sunday and into the new week. Quiet
conditions and above average temperatures will be ongoing until
the pattern starts shifting eastwards. As the aforementioned
pattern shift takes place, southerly flow will push gulf moisture
towards our area and a cold front is expected to move through
northern portions of the CWA. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible, primarily in northern portions of
the area on Tuesday. On Wednesday, a brief drying period will take
place in between disturbances. A more potent cold front is
expected to move into the region Thursday, resulting in shower and
thunderstorm chances to close out the forecast period. With
sufficient moisture in place, increasing deep layer shear,
increasing lapse rates, and the potential for greater CAPE values
ahead of the front, we will be monitoring for the potential of
severe weather. however, confidence is low at this time. As the
time frame gets closer, updates on the severe weather potential
will be provided. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 217 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

VFR conditions should prevail at the TAF sites through the period,
with winds becoming light from the south-southwest. /NF/
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Jackson       55  81  57  83 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      52  83  54  84 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     55  81  59  83 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   53  82  56  84 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       55  82  59  84 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    57  80  61  81 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     57  80  60  81 /   0   0   0   0
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DC/SW/NF