000
FXUS64 KJAN 230948
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
448 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 448 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Today and Tonight:

In advance of an upper-level shortwave trough dives through the
Great Lakes region today, a dry but warming surface air mass will
remain over the Gulf Coast region. Have nudged dew points a little
on the drier side of guidance as we remain under the influence of
the surface high through the day. A cold front associated with the
system to our north may dip into far northern parts of our forecast
area late tonight, but warming ahead of this front will actually
result in warmer temps across the board compared with this morning`s
temps. Steadily rising low-level moisture today into the overnight
period, along with radiational cooling over the Pine Belt in
southeast Mississippi could result in fog chances for those areas
early Wednesday morning. At this time dense fog development is
uncertain, but the narrow ribbons of river fog showing up on
satellite early this morning suggest some areas of advection-
radiation fog could develop tomorrow morning. /NF/

Wednesday through Monday:

Extended forecast remains on track as 1) a cold front (on Wednesday)
and 2) a few shortwaves (over the weekend) are expected to move
through the area. In addition to those two features, another cold
front is expected to move through the area at the start of next
week. In between systems, a warming trend will take place through
mid-week and the beginning of next week.

A weak cold front is expected to push across the area on Wednesday,
but is looking to be mostly dry as QPF values are low. However, as
PW values near 1.4 will help promote the chance of isolated showers
or thunderstorms for northern counties for Wednesday and Thursday.
An upper-level ridge will settle over the southern CONUS, increasing
southerly flow and bringing a brief dry period for northern counties
Thursday evening into Friday. As a result, moisture and temperatures
will increase heading into the weekend.

Rain chances will return across northwestern MS and southeastern AR
Friday evening into Saturday as the shortwaves begins to move across
the area. Elsewhere will remain dry before rain chances encompass
the rest of the CWA on Sunday and into the new week ahead of another
frontal boundary. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible with
these disturbances. At this time, severe weather potential is
outlooked to the west of the CWA for Sunday and we will be
monitoring for any changes with the upcoming forecast. A low
pressure center near MN will push the aforementioned cold front
through our area early next week.  Despite shower and thunderstorm
chances, weekend temperatures are expected to reach the middle to
upper 80s. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period at
all sites. A few locations could see gusts up to around 20 kts
after 15Z today, but most likely at KGLH and KGWO. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       75  54  79  60 /   0   0  10  10
Meridian      76  52  81  59 /   0   0  10   0
Vicksburg     76  56  80  62 /   0   0  10  10
Hattiesburg   78  53  83  60 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       76  54  81  60 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    73  59  76  62 /   0   0  20  20
Greenwood     73  57  77  61 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

NF/SW/NF