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842
FXUS62 KJAX 100715
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
315 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
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Issued at 313 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Rather complex weather pattern for today as several rounds of
strong to severe storms expected ahead of cold frontal passage
with 1st one arriving during the morning hours, with a secondary
storm complex this afternoon moving front NW to SE across the
region, followed by a lingering strong to severe storm threat with
the actual cold frontal passage across SE GA during the late
afternoon hours and NE FL during the evening hours before finally
pushing south of the region around midnight tonight. Damaging
winds remain the main threat from these storm complexes as they
move quickly through, but large hail and/or isolated tornadoes
cannot be ruled out. Training of storms will lead to excessive
rainfall potential as well with SE GA counties under the main
threat of localized flooding due to wetter antecedent conditions
and the heavy rainfall that already occurred Thursday afternoon,
while NE FL missed out on most of the heavy rainfall yesterday, so
should be able to handle the waves of heavy rainfall with any
localized flooding issues confined to urban areas. Max temps will
be tricky as the wave of morning storms will hinder daytime
heating but a break in between the 2 storm complexes should still
lead to highs in the lower 80s across SE GA, while a bit more
sunshine ahead of the storm complexes across NE FL should lead to
highs mainly in the mid/upper 80s, while some lower 90s may still
be reached mainly across Marion/Putnam/St. Johns and Flagler
counties. Following the last round of strong to severe storms with
the cold frontal passage this evening, expect clearing skies
during the overnight hours as winds become North around 10 mph and
a cooler/drier airmass filters into the region towards morning
with lows near 60 across SE GA and in the mid/upper 60s across NE
FL by sunrise Saturday morning.
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&&

.SHORT TERM...
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(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 313 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

The cold front will have essentially cleared the region by the
start of Saturday, with weak high pressure building in throughout
the day. The pressure gradient behind the front will not be
particularly strong, and therefore winds will not really increase
diurnally, and in fact may subside a bit throughout the day. The
more northerly component with the wind should allow a bit of a sea
breeze to develop, though will likely not penetrate much further
inland than the I-95/St. Johns River corridor. Otherwise, a mostly
sunny and seasonably warm day, near to slightly above 80 north and
upper 80s to near 90 south, dropping into the upper 50s to low/mid
60s Saturday Night.

Broad high pressure moves more overhead on Saturday Night and
through Sunday, which will persist fair weather and light winds to
end the weekend with just some high clouds starting to fill in
overhead. A sea breeze will develop once again with the light
winds during the afternoon, with temps topping out in the 80s
before the boundary moves across eastern areas. More cloud cover
will result in a bit milder lows Sunday Night, generally 60s to
near 70 by the coast and St. Johns River.
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&&

.LONG TERM...
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(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 313 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

High pressure moves offshore Monday, with a much more unsettled
pattern looking to take shape for most of this period. A frontal
system approaches the area with a warm front passage on Monday,
followed by the trailing cold front Tuesday and into Wednesday.
The boundary looks to stall almost directly over the CWA around
the Wednesday/Thursday time frame, with several shortwaves moving
across the area and maintaining chances for showers and t`storms
before more of a "kicker" front approaches towards the end of the
week. Temperatures start this period near to slightly below
average with the unsettled weather, then towards near to slightly
above average by Wednesday/Thursday.
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&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Layer of IFR/MVFR CIGS already develop at GNV and other pockets of
inland NE FL which are expected to push into all other TAF sites
in the 09-12Z time frame and will remain in place until showers
and storms from 1st wave pushes into the TAF sites through the
morning hours 12-15Z with IFR VSBYS/MVFR CIGS and gusty winds to
at least 30 knots for now at the TAF sites. Will need to show
trend for afternoon/evening round of storms with a PROB30 group to
cover current uncertainty for timing of 2nd round ahead of the
cold frontal passage which is expected to take place just prior to
the end of the TAF package in the 02-06Z time frame at TAF sites.

&&

.MARINE...
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Issued at 313 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Offshore Southwest to West flow will remain at SCEC (Small Craft
Exercise Caution) levels (15-20 knots) ahead of the cold frontal
passage Today into this evening with the main marine hazard with
strong to severe storms with damaging wind threat impacting the
waters in several waves through this evening. Winds shift to the
North at SCEC levels after midnight tonight behind the cold
frontal passage and spread across the local waters. These winds
become onshore/NE on Saturday and weaken to 10-15 knots as the
weak high pressure ridge builds over the waters for the weekend
with weak pressure gradient and No headlines expected with local
sea breezes during the afternoon hours. The old frontal boundary
lifts back to the North as a warm frontal boundary on Monday and
stalls across the local waters on Tuesday as several waves of low
pressure track along this feature. Increasing SE winds on Monday
to possible Small Craft Advisory levels will shift to South and
Southwest on Tuesday as the waves moving along the frontal
boundary with a more unsettled pattern of showers and storms at
times, with heavy rainfall and gusty wind threat at times early
next week.

Rip Currents: Low to Moderate risk of rip currents expected Today
through the weekend with surf/breakers around 2 feet, before
onshore/SE flow increases on Monday with a potential for solid
Moderate to High Risk of rip currents.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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AMG  83  59  82  59 / 100  20   0   0
SSI  82  65  79  64 / 100  20   0   0
JAX  86  64  84  61 / 100  40   0   0
SGJ  90  68  83  64 /  80  60   0   0
GNV  89  66  87  60 /  80  60   0   0
OCF  90  68  89  62 /  50  70   0   0
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&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$