Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 251228
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
828 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 814 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Coastal hazards continue to today including frequent rip currents
(High Rip Current Risk) and rough, large surf (Surf Advisory for
NE FL Beaches, breakers 7-8 ft).

Breezy again today but quite not as strong as yesterday with
coastal clouds streaming onshore and a low chance of brief light
sprinkles or a shower, mainly north of the Duval county coast as
the coastal trough lifts northward & inland through the evening.
Gusty ENE winds this morning will range near 30 mph a the coast
to 20-25 mph farther inland. Winds will veer from ENE to E to ESE
through the day trailing the lifting trough, with gusts
diminishing in strength into the early evening.

Temperatures will warm back near to just above climo values across
NE FL sites where more partly cloudy skies are expected into the
afternoon, while more persistent mostly to partly cloudy skies
across SE GA on the northern side of the lifting trough axis will
keep temperatures slightly cooler than normal from the mid 60s
coast to upper 60s to near 70 inland.

The forecast was on track and no major changes were made in the
morning update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 427 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Partly cloudy skies during the day Tuesday as a frontal boundary
slowly makes its way into the region. Expect warmer temperatures
in the mid to upper 70s along the coast and low to mid 80s inland
as the southeast flow keeps temperatures above average. The
frontal boundary will push moisture and some convection in late
Tuesday night and in to Wednesday morning.

Wednesday is looking to be a rainy day, with showers and storms
increasing throughout the afternoon and into the evening.
Excessive heavy rainfall is possible with chances of some stronger
storms as upper level troughs move across the region. Temperatures
will remain in the 70s with some inland areas in the low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 427 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

By Thursday morning, the frontal boundary should have made its way
mostly out of the region with conditions drying out behind the
front as a high pressure system makes its way in over the region
by Friday and sticking around to the end of the week. Morning
temperatures will drop into the mid to upper 40s inland behind the
front with day time temperatures in the upper 60s lower 70s
Friday warming up into the upper 70s and low 80s by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Low clouds 5-6 kft will continue stream inland from the Atlantic
this morning as they lift northward up the local Atlantic coast.
High cirrus will continue to stream overhead aloft. MVFR potential
highest at SSI with passing isolated showers after 15z, and will
maintain prevailing BKN025 and VCSH.

Breezy ENE winds already ranged between 7-14 kts sustained with
gusts of 20-25 kts at the coast. Through mid-morning, winds will
continue to increase magnitude with sustained speeds 12-16 kts at
the coast with gust to potential 25-30 kts at SSI to 15-25 kts
elsewhere.

Wind decrease after 00z into the 6-12 kt range through 06z. Still
enough gradient and passing clouds from the east overnight to
limit fog development.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 427 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Strong high pressure centered over New England this morning will
continue to wedge down the southeastern seaboard today. Gusty
onshore winds will keep seas elevated throughout our local waters
through Tuesday night, resulting in a continuation of Small Craft
Advisories. Seas of 6-8 feet will prevail near shore through
Tuesday, while seas offshore remain in the 7-10 foot range. Seas
will gradually subside to the 5-7 foot range near shore on Tuesday
and Tuesday night, while seas offshore subside to the 6-8 foot
range.

Meanwhile, a cold front crossing Texas today will move into the
lower Mississippi Valley tonight, with a wave of low pressure then
developing near the Florida panhandle coast on Tuesday afternoon
that will slow the forward progress of this frontal boundary.
Winds will shift to southerly and will weaken ahead of this storm
system on Wednesday, with elevated seas of 5-7 feet persisting
offshore. Showers and thunderstorms will then overspread our local
waters on Wednesday afternoon and evening, with activity likely
lingering into Thursday as this front slowly crosses our area.
Northwesterly winds will surge in the wake of this frontal
boundary on Thursday afternoon and evening, with winds shifting to
northerly by late Thursday night as high pressure builds over the
lower Mississippi Valley in the wake of the frontal passage. High
pressure will then shift eastward and will be located directly
over our local waters by Friday evening, allowing for winds and
seas to subside.

Rip Currents / Beach Erosion: Breakers of 6-8 feet will prevail
today at the northeast FL beaches, with 5-6 foot breakers at the
northeast FL beaches. This rough, pounding surf may result in
beach erosion at area beaches around times of high tide through
Tuesday. A High Surf Advisory will remain posted for the northeast
FL beaches through tonight, and a high risk of deadly rip currents
will continue through at least Tuesday, with an extension through
Wednesday likely for the northeast FL beaches in future forecasts.
Breakers will only slowly subside on Tuesday, with 5-6 footers
expected at the northeast FL beaches and 4-5 footers at the
southeast GA beaches.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 427 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Winds will mainly be from the east today with breezy conditions
especially along the coast. Dispersions will be high by the early
afternoon for inland NE FL with patchy high dispersions area wide
tomorrow as transport winds shift to southerly by the afternoon
as a cold front makes its way in to the region. Humidity will
remain above critical levels for the period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 427 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Water levels continue to gradually recede all along the Altamaha
River, with minor flooding expected to continue during the next
several days along upper portions of the Altamaha River near the
Baxley gauge. Water levels are expected to fall below flood stage
along lower portions of the Altamaha River near the Everett City
gauge on Tuesday evening. Meanwhile, runoff from more recent
rainfall is resulting in rises along the Satilla River, with
minor flooding expected to begin along lower portions of the
Satilla River near the Atkinson gauge towards midweek.

A slow moving frontal boundary will impact our region from late
Tuesday night through Thursday afternoon. Widespread rainfall
amounts of 1-2 inches, with locally higher totals up towards 3
inches are forecast across inland portions of southeast GA and the
Suwannee Valley. These locations have been placed within a Slight
Risk of Excessive Rainfall by the Weather Prediction Center, with
a Marginal Risk in place elsewhere, where totals of around an inch
are expected, with locally heavier amounts possible where
downpours train repeatedly over the same locations.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  69  53  82  63 /   0   0  10  50
SSI  67  60  74  63 /  20  10   0  10
JAX  76  56  82  63 /  10   0   0  10
SGJ  73  61  79  64 /  10   0   0   0
GNV  80  56  84  63 /   0   0   0  10
OCF  81  57  86  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ124-125-133-
     138.

     High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for FLZ124-125-133-138.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ450-452-
     454.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ470-472-474.

&&

$$


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