000
FXUS62 KJAX 231004
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
604 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 230 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

High pressure will continue to build to the northeast today, allowing
for onshore winds to develop and sunny skies. High temperatures
will remain below normal today, but will be able to rebound to a
few degrees warmer than Monday, with highs in the 70s area-wide.
Tonight, low temperatures will fall into the 50s, with warmer
temps along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 230 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

A mid to upper level trough will move through the northeast U.S.
and Mid Atlantic states Wed-Thu, with an associated cold front
slowly working its way southward toward our area for Thursday. The
sfc high will in turn shift southward on Wed certain to bring
warmer temps to the area as more southwest to south low level
develops. For Thursday, the weak cold front looks to move to the
Altamaha River Basin Thursday morning and slowly drift southward
while losing some of it identity per thickness fields, given the
fact that upper level support wanes as the mid level trough will
move away from the area and ridging builds in aloft. PWATs near 1
to 1.25 inches and some forcing along the front may spark an
isolated shower but overall dry for nearly all locations. The
front may drop to the FL/GA state line by Thu night and stall.
Isolated showers will be possible over the north parts of coastal
waters along the front based on blend of the guidance.

With mostly clear skies and fairly light winds, highs in the lower
80s most areas on Wed, and then lower to mid 80s for Thu. Lows
continue to trend upwards by Wed night at about 55-60, and around
60 or lower 60s for Thu night. Atlantic sea breeze will keep max
temps there a bit cooler each day.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 230 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

On Friday, high pressure at around 1032 mb will be centered over
the northeast U.S. with high pressure ridge/wedge down into the
srn Appalachians and into north GA. The frontal boundary looks
pretty diffuse over the area with only weak convergence noted near
the central and north parts of the area. There is some moisture
to work with for potential isolated showers, and so for now will
leave POPs low at around 10-15 percent for central and northern
zones as models are relatively dry on precip amounts. The flow
will be onshore/easterly and breezy at times, esp for the coast.

For the weekend, any semblance of a front across the area lifts
to the north given high pressure ridge at the sfc and aloft is over
the area. This should result in stable conditions and staying
mostly dry and warm, though can`t rule out a stray marine shower
near the coast and adjacent waters. Temperatures are expected to
be near and slightly above the seasonal average into Monday. Given
the prevailing east- southeast flow, the inland areas will see
the warmest daytime temps, in the mid to upper 80s, while the
coast staying mostly near 80 or lower 80s. The next cold frontal
system approaches the southeast states on Monday, but looks like
best forcing with an associated upper level trough is pretty far
removed from our forecast area, so warm and dry conditions
continue for Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

After VQQ`s visibilities clear this morning, all TAF sites will
have VFR conditions throughout the day with easterly winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

High pressure will build over the local waters today through Wednesday
and result in winds and seas to subside. A front approaches from the
north Wednesday night into Thursday, and begins to stall near the
local Georgia waters. This front will shift westward across the
local waters late Thursday into Friday, then high pressure will
strengthen northeast of the region Friday into the weekend with a
return of stronger easterly winds and building seas.

Rip Currents: Moderate to high risk for area beaches, with the
highest risk for northeast FL Beaches today. Somewhat lower
chances for rips on Wednesday and at least at moderate levels.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Min RH values expected in the upper 20s to around 30 over southeast
GA and mostly in the lower 30 percent range for northeast FL
today. Min RH Values may be slightly higher for Wed. For both
days, winds and RH values don`t meet criteria for red flags.
Dispersions may be slightly high for Wed aftn for north parts of
the area near 70-75.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  50  81  57 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  70  58  78  61 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  73  53  82  57 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  72  57  79  59 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  78  53  82  55 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  79  54  83  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ124-125-133-
     138.

GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ470-
     472-474.

&&

$$