000
FXUS62 KJAX 231844
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
244 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Under high pressure ridge, mainly clear skies will continue
through the night, with lows falling into the lower to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Wednesday...Weak cold front pushes through the SE US states and
reaches Central GA/Carolinas by the end of the day but remains
void of any measurable rainfall at this time. The West to
Southwest steering flow will push temps back closer to normal
values with highs in the 80-85 range over inland areas and in
the upper 70s along the coast.

Wednesday Night...The weak frontal boundary will sag further
south through SE GA and end up near the FL/GA border by early
Thursday morning, but still not expecting any measurable rainfall
at this time, but some slight increase in cloudiness is expected
across SE GA while NE FL remains mostly clear. Seasonably cool
overnight lows in the 50s will continue over inland areas, with
lows near 60 along the coast. Some patchy fog possible along the
I-75 corridor of inland NE FL by sunrise Thursday morning, but air
mass remains too dry for any significant fog at this time.

Thursday...The weak frontal boundary across the NE FL/SE GA region
will become diffuse and still expect mainly dry conditions, but
enough increase in moisture and diurnal heating into the middle
80s over inland areas and sea breeze boundaries might be enough to
trigger an isolated afternoon shower, but overall measurable
rainfall chances remain less than 20 percent.

Thursday Night...High pressure builds to the NE of the region over
the Carolinas and this will increase low level easterly/onshore
flow along with some increase in cloud cover over the Atlantic
Coastal waters and closer to the old frontal boundary across SE
GA, and again only limited/isolated shower activity is expected
over the Coastal waters, mainly near the better low level
convergence along the SE GA coastal areas. Overnight lows a bit
milder around 60 over inland areas and near 65 along the Atlantic
Coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Rather stagnant pattern will remain in place through the period
with high pressure ridge axis remains oriented East to West across
the Carolinas, which will continue a breezy Easterly/Onshore flow
across the region through the weekend, which will slowly become
more Southeast early next week as long range models suggest this
high pressure ridge axis will drift slowly southward through the
period. Rainfall chances will remain limited through the period
with only a few isolated showers over the Coastal waters, or
possible along the East Coast sea breeze as it pushes inland each
day, but again overall measurable rainfall chances remain at 20
percent or less through the period. Temps will be close to normal
values through the weekend with a trend towards above normal temps
early next week as the ridge axis slides southward. These high
temps will generally be in the mid/upper 80s over far inland
areas, with lower 80s along the I-95 corridor and around 80 each
day along the Atlantic Coastal areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 102 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Other than the potential for a little patchy fog along the
I10 corridor toward sunrise Wednesday affecting KVQQ, prevailing
VFR conditions forecast this period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

High pressure ridge will be across the area through Tonight, then
slide to the south Wednesday. A weak cold front will move south
into region Thursday and stall. High pressure will build to the
northeast late in the week through the weekend.

Rip Currents: SE GA Moderate through Wednesday
              NE FL High Today, Moderate Wednesday

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

High pressure and dry air mass will remain in place on Wednesday,
then a weak frontal boundary will sag southward into SE GA
Wednesday Night and stall near the FL/GA border on Thursday before
washing out. High pressure will re-build north of the region on
Friday with a breezy Easterly/Onshore flow expected through the
weekend. Near critical humidities falling to around 30 percent are
expected Wednesday afternoon, but winds will remain around 10 mph
or less. Minimum humidities will be closer to 35 percent on
Thursday afternoon with light and variable winds. The East Coast
sea breeze will remain pinned closer to the coast along the I-95
corridor on Wednesday afternoon, but will move further inland to
the US 301 corridor on Thursday afternoon.

Patchy fog will be possible over inland areas the next couple of
mornings, but significant fog is not expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  50  80  55  84 /   0   0   0  10
SSI  61  76  61  79 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  52  82  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  58  79  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  53  83  55  86 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  53  83  55  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EDT this evening for FLZ124-
     125-133-138.

GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$