Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 221540 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1140 AM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 1125 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2018 15z sfc analysis shows high pressure building into Kentucky as low pressure pulls further away to the east. The winds are lighter today as a result of the pressure gradient relaxing through the area. Under sunny skies, temperatures have rebounded from chilly morning lows in the lower 20s most places to reach the mid to upper 30s. Meanwhile, dewpoints are generally in the mid to upper 20s. The snow patches show up quite well in the visible satellite given the cloudfree skies - the melting from these should hold back temps a bit in those areas. Have updated the forecast mainly to fine tune temps and dewpoints through the afternoon - as well as to adjust sky cover per the latest high res models into the evening. These updated grids have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with the issuance of a fresh set of zones and the HWO. UPDATE Issued at 623 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2018 Forecast is on track. Just freshened up the grids with current observations and blended into the forecast. No other changes were needed. Updates have been sent to NDFD and to the web.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 358 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2018 Snow showers have diminished and upper level ridging is taking hold, along with surface high pressure moving in from the west. A few areas, mainly in the southwest portion of eastern Kentucky, could see some fog through the early morning. As the high pressure moves in, the flow from the northwest will bring in cool air that will keep high temps near mid 40s today. With the clear skies and progression of the surface high pressure to the east, there is potential for a ridge/valley temperature split tonight as well. The ridges could get down near 30, whereas the valleys could drop into the mid to low 20s. With the cold temps and dew points in the mid to low 20s, it is possible for areas to see frost as well, particularly in valleys. As for Friday, the surface high pressure will be more to the southeast of eastern Kentucky, so the return flow will warm up temperatures during the day ranging from upper 40s to low 50s. The only precip of note will enter the Commonwealth very late Friday, but mainly affect the extended portion of the forecast. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 446 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2018 Flow will be backing aloft Friday night in response to a shortwave trough sliding through the Great Plains into the Midwest. An accompanying surface low will track toward the Commonwealth as deep layer moisture increases along and ahead of a warm front, resulting in precipitation overspreading eastern Kentucky into Saturday. Expecting the Lake Cumberland region to remain liquid rain at this point, with snow and potentially some sleet mixing in at times elsewhere. Any threat for freezing rain looks very minimal at this time owing to saturation maintaining itself in the -10 to -20C layer. The wet nature of the snow that falls should keep accumulations light for most locales with temperatures hovering around freezing. Could see an inch or two in the Bluegrass through portions of the Big Sandy region, but this will largely depend on how quickly/far the warm front pushes into eastern Kentucky. Temperatures should warm enough Saturday afternoon to change all precipitation to rain, although a tight gradient will likely exist with portions of the Bluegrass region only topping out in the upper 30s while areas near the Tennessee state line make it well into the 50s. Enough elevated instability looks to be present over southeastern Kentucky to warrant some thunder mention Saturday afternoon and evening. Temperatures will cool Saturday evening and night as the surface low pushes south into Tennessee. While moisture will scour out through the night, may once again see a mix of snow/sleet, generally north of Mountain Parkway. Accumulations should be confined to half an inch or less as drier air filters in. Following rain showers tapering off across southeast Kentucky Sunday afternoon, a warmer and potentially drier period looks to be in store for early week as shortwave ridging slides into the Ohio Valley. Rain chances then look to increase by midweek as an upper low digs into the Desert Southwest, placing eastern Kentucky in southwest flow. Ridging across the Gulf of Mexico and eastern CONUS will play a role in where the main band(s) of rain setup through the week as temperatures warm into the 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) ISSUED AT 727 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2018 LIFR fog currently impacting SME with at least IFR to MVFR fog impacting other valley terminals this morning. Will see this dissipate by mid morning as clouds continue lifting and thinning out as high pressure builds in from the west. Northwest winds will increase to 5-10 knots this afternoon, before diminishing below 5 knots this evening. May see some increase in mid-high clouds this evening and tonight, but any ceilings will remain in the VFR category. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...CGAL LONG TERM...GUSEMAN AVIATION...GUSEMAN is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.