Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KJKL 280025 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 825 PM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES...
-- Changed Discussion --
- Temperatures cool to within a few degrees of normal through Thursday, with the threat for sub-freezing temperatures returning for many western valley locations Thursday morning and most valley areas Friday morning. - Frost will be possible both tonight and Thursday night, especially in the valleys. - PoPs start to creep back in from the northwest this weekend, with temperatures returning to well above normal.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 755 PM EDT WED MAR 27 2024 23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure building more effectively into eastern Kentucky this evening. This has led to mostly clear skies and drier humidities. It will also soon settle the northwest winds that are still exhibiting some gustiness in addition to sustained values of around 10 mph, most places. Currently, temperatures vary from the mid 40s northwest to near 60 degrees in the far southeast. Meanwhile, dewpoints are generally in the low to mid 30s. Look for a small ridge to valley difference to develop in temperatures through the night once the winds go light. In addition to the potential for frost - especially in the valleys - some light fog could develop along the rivers and near lakes. Have added a touch into the grids for late tonight. Did also add in the current obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a forthcoming SPS for a heads up to the frost and freezing potential tonight.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 322 PM EDT WED MAR 27 2024 Present surface analysis is a lot quieter compared to this time yesterday. The cold front that was approaching the CWA has now moved off to the east and mostly clear skies are in place as surface high pressure builds eastward into the region. Lingering clouds are continuing to hang around but are slowly starting to scatter out to become mostly sunny. Southwesterly flow on the backside of the exiting trough will allow for highs to climb into the low-50s to low 60s today. Later this afternoon a closed circulation will pivot eastward and bring a push of colder air into the region. Coupled with surface high pressure and expected clear skies, overnight lows are forecast to tumble into upper-20s in the valleys and lower-30s on the ridges. Also, these colder temperatures will promote frost development in the more sheltered valleys across the CWA. Thursday will feature the area firmly under the dome of high pressure but aloft, northwesterly flow will keep temperatures relatively cooler as highs in the upper- 50s to lower-60s are expected for Thursday afternoon. This northwesterly flow will provide that extra push for continued cold air Thursday night into Friday morning as overnight lows are forecast to drop into the lower-30s for the valleys and mid-30s for the ridges. Again, widespread frost will be possible for the more sheltered valleys. Lastly, a weak, dry boundary will push through the area early Friday morning but as moisture is limited, the area will remain dry for the end of the period. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 410 PM EDT WED MAR 27 2024 The period will start with surface high pressure over the Deep South and a stalled frontal boundary over IN and OH. Aloft, ridging will be building toward us from the west. Weak shortwave troughing is expected to ripple east through the ridge as it passes over Friday night into Saturday, flattening the ridge and supporting a weak low traveling east along the front to our north. During this time, slow moisture advection will be prepping us for a potential of showers from the shortwave. The passage of the low will send the frontal boundary slightly southward as a cold front, with the front likely stalling in KY Saturday night. By that time, a deep upper low will be dropping SSE into the southwest CONUS at the heart of a large trough. This promotes a lee low over the high plains, increasing flow off the gulf, strengthening the frontal boundary and letting it creep northward. Our potential for showers/thunderstorms will continue in this scenario, enhanced periodically by impulses aloft. The western trough eventually heads east along with the surface low. The passage of the low will send the boundary through KY as a cold front, but the models are still trying to pin down the details of this. With a range of possibilities, the cold fropa is expected sometime in the window of Monday night to Tuesday night. Our highest POP and heaviest precip is expected with the approach and passage of the front in that time frame. && .AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) ISSUED AT 825 PM EDT WED MAR 27 2024 Through the period conditions will be VFR as high pressure builds into the region. Look for the current breezy northwest winds to settle shortly to light and variable through the night and into the morning before picking up from the northwest at 5 to 10 kts by midday, Thursday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...VORST LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...VORST/GREIF

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.