Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
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000
FXUS63 KJKL 280025 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
825 PM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
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- Temperatures cool to within a few degrees of normal through
Thursday, with the threat for sub-freezing temperatures
returning for many western valley locations Thursday morning and
most valley areas Friday morning.
- Frost will be possible both tonight and Thursday night,
especially in the valleys.
- PoPs start to creep back in from the northwest this weekend,
with temperatures returning to well above normal.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.UPDATE...
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Issued at 755 PM EDT WED MAR 27 2024
23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure building more effectively
into eastern Kentucky this evening. This has led to mostly clear
skies and drier humidities. It will also soon settle the northwest
winds that are still exhibiting some gustiness in addition to
sustained values of around 10 mph, most places. Currently,
temperatures vary from the mid 40s northwest to near 60 degrees in
the far southeast. Meanwhile, dewpoints are generally in the low
to mid 30s. Look for a small ridge to valley difference to develop
in temperatures through the night once the winds go light. In
addition to the potential for frost - especially in the valleys -
some light fog could develop along the rivers and near lakes. Have
added a touch into the grids for late tonight. Did also add in the
current obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with
a forthcoming SPS for a heads up to the frost and freezing
potential tonight.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 322 PM EDT WED MAR 27 2024
Present surface analysis is a lot quieter compared to this time
yesterday. The cold front that was approaching the CWA has now moved
off to the east and mostly clear skies are in place as surface high
pressure builds eastward into the region. Lingering clouds are
continuing to hang around but are slowly starting to scatter out to
become mostly sunny. Southwesterly flow on the backside of the
exiting trough will allow for highs to climb into the low-50s to low
60s today.
Later this afternoon a closed circulation will pivot eastward and
bring a push of colder air into the region. Coupled with surface
high pressure and expected clear skies, overnight lows are forecast
to tumble into upper-20s in the valleys and lower-30s on the ridges.
Also, these colder temperatures will promote frost development in
the more sheltered valleys across the CWA. Thursday will feature the
area firmly under the dome of high pressure but aloft, northwesterly
flow will keep temperatures relatively cooler as highs in the upper-
50s to lower-60s are expected for Thursday afternoon. This
northwesterly flow will provide that extra push for continued cold
air Thursday night into Friday morning as overnight lows are
forecast to drop into the lower-30s for the valleys and mid-30s for
the ridges. Again, widespread frost will be possible for the more
sheltered valleys. Lastly, a weak, dry boundary will push through
the area early Friday morning but as moisture is limited, the area
will remain dry for the end of the period.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 410 PM EDT WED MAR 27 2024
The period will start with surface high pressure over the Deep
South and a stalled frontal boundary over IN and OH. Aloft, ridging
will be building toward us from the west. Weak shortwave troughing is
expected to ripple east through the ridge as it passes over Friday
night into Saturday, flattening the ridge and supporting a weak low
traveling east along the front to our north. During this time, slow
moisture advection will be prepping us for a potential of showers
from the shortwave. The passage of the low will send the frontal
boundary slightly southward as a cold front, with the front likely
stalling in KY Saturday night. By that time, a deep upper low will
be dropping SSE into the southwest CONUS at the heart of a large
trough. This promotes a lee low over the high plains, increasing
flow off the gulf, strengthening the frontal boundary and letting it
creep northward. Our potential for showers/thunderstorms will
continue in this scenario, enhanced periodically by impulses aloft.
The western trough eventually heads east along with the surface low.
The passage of the low will send the boundary through KY as a cold
front, but the models are still trying to pin down the details of
this. With a range of possibilities, the cold fropa is expected
sometime in the window of Monday night to Tuesday night. Our highest
POP and heaviest precip is expected with the approach and passage of
the front in that time frame.
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.AVIATION...-- Changed Discussion --
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 825 PM EDT WED MAR 27 2024
Through the period conditions will be VFR as high pressure builds
into the region. Look for the current breezy northwest winds to
settle shortly to light and variable through the night and into
the morning before picking up from the northwest at 5 to 10 kts by
midday, Thursday.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...VORST/GREIF