Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 210550 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 150 AM EDT Mon May 21 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 1056 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2018 The last of the storms that threatened from the north have dissipated. Expect a quiet rest of the night, with partly cloudy to mostly clear skies and areas of fog forming once again. The fog should be more confined to the deeper river valleys compared to last night. Forecast lows in the low to mid 60s look on target and have only made a few adjustments based on the latest trends in observations. Updates have been sent. UPDATE Issued at 805 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2018 Eastern Kentucky remains precipitation-free at the moment, as short wave ridging has kept most convection at bay. A cluster of storms is moving in from around the Ohio River, but these should dissipate as they move into a less favorable environment across the Bluegrass, which recent runs of the HRRR supports. Will maintain the dry forecast through the night, and have mainly freshened up the diurnal temperature drop off through this evening. Will assess temperatures and fog a bit later. Updates will be out shortly. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 407 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2018 Have seen a few showers pop this afternoon across the Big Sandy region as a summertime airmass interacts with the higher terrain. Temperatures in the mid 80s combined with dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s have created enough instability, that when combined with even subtle lift, is enough for a pulse type storm to quickly develop. Have actually seen dewpoints mix down into the upper 50s to lower 60s in the Lake Cumberland region nearer the core of relatively drier air. Additional showers and isolated storms will remain possible this afternoon, mainly in far eastern Kentucky where southwesterly low level winds will provide greater upslope lift. None of these will last long given the lack of available shear for storm-scale organization. Upper ridging currently over much of the southeastern U.S. and extending into eastern Kentucky will gradually flatten tonight into Monday as a shortwave trough migrates out of the Great Plains and toward the Great Lakes. Dry conditions should largely prevail locally through tonight and early Monday as an overnight complex of storms remains confined to mainly north of the Ohio River. Valley fog will be a good bet given crossover temperatures in the mid 60s or so, but this should be less prevalent than last night due to an overall lack of rain today. Rain chances will ramp back up Monday afternoon as upper heights eventually fall southeast of the above mentioned upper impulse. A surface low will follow a similar track, surging precipitable water values back to the 1.5 inch range. A frontal boundary initially near the lower Ohio Valley will lift north through the morning and afternoon, but any height falls aloft will be enough to spark scattered to numerous showers/storms throughout the afternoon given abundant instability. Anemic deep layer shear will keep strong to severe storms at bay, other than perhaps a few cell mergers and resultant brief upticks in updraft strength. These could produce isolated small hail and wind gusts to 40 mph or so. Rain chances will continue into the evening and overnight as a cool front slides southeast toward the lower Ohio Valley. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 300 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2018 In the extended we can expect chances for showers and storms Tuesday through late Wednesday. The best chances for rain during this initial round of precipitation will be Tuesday afternoon and evening. The rain should then taper off very quickly late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. The last few showers or storms should be out of the area by late Wednesday afternoon. After that, we should see a period of dry weather from Wednesday evening through early Friday morning, as a ridge of high pressure temporarily takes hold across the region. A series of low pressure systems are then forecast to bring periods of showers and storms back to eastern Kentucky from Friday through Saturday night. Temperatures during the period will likely be above normal, with daily highs in the low to mid 80s and nightly lows in the low to mid 60s expected. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON MAY 21 2018 Expect VFR conditions to begin the TAF period and lasting into the morning hours. Some fog is expected to develop and have indicated this this in the river valleys but also some of the TAF sites. The 2 northern sites, where a bit more moisture were available, vis will drop to IFR and even LIFR conditions here for a short period of time. heading into the day, expect a round of showers and thunderstorms to move through so have indicated this in the TAF sites. Given the nature of convection the past few days, went with VCTS to show some uncertainty. Winds will be light outside of thunderstorms. Expect vis and cigs dropping in locations that a storm passes over. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.