Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 190409 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1209 AM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 1209 AM EDT MON MAR 19 2018 Just sent out one last forecast update to remove evening wording from the zone forecast text product and to use the most recent obs to update the forecast grids with fresh data. Forecast on track. UPDATE Issued at 805 PM EDT SUN MAR 18 2018 The forecast has been on track so far this evening. Will need to update later in the shift to remove evening wording a make a few adjustments to temperatures and what not. Ingested the latest obs into the grids to establish new trends.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 400 PM EDT SUN MAR 18 2018 Surface high pressure to our north on Sunday will transition off the east coast tonight, while an upper low and an associated surface system begin to head east from the plains. A return of warm air advection/isentropic lift ahead of the system will result in clouds returning tonight, but precip is expected to hold off until Monday. On Monday, the surface low is forecast to track east along the KY/TN border and eventually cause showers to overspread the forecast area. Elevated instability is shown in forecast soundings across our southern counties late in the day and into the evening, and a mention of thunder has been included. The surface low is expected to stall over the Appalachians Monday night as coastal development takes over to the east. As the initial upper low passes to our east, showers are expected to diminish late Monday night into Tuesday morning. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 400 PM EDT SUN MAR 18 2018 The extended portion of the forecast begins on Tuesday night with an active upper level pattern in place. A trough in place over the OH Valley will make for active weather to begin the extended. A surface low tracking across the TN Valley and lifting northeast will put eastern Kentucky on the northern side of the low allowing for the possibility of a wet snow. Surface temps look to be slightly warm during this time from Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. At this time, model soundings show the colder air waiting until day break Wednesday morning before enough colder air filters into eastern Kentucky behind the surface low. Thus, will only expect around an inch Tuesday night through the day on Wednesday in the lower elevations but on the higher elevations above 2000 feet, up to 3 inches could not be ruled out. As the mentioned low exits for Wednesday night, winds shift around to the northwest for a short duration upslope snow shower event. Lack of consistency for Tuesday night into Wednesday allows for a low confidence forecast as a few degrees change in temperature will make for little to no snow or a significant accumulation of snow. By Thursday, high pressure moves into the area from the northwest with a dry period expected for all of Thursday and into Thursday night. The next weather maker develops and moves into the area fro Friday. A surface low developing over the Plains will lift a warm front into the area by Friday afternoon bringing the chance for showers. Precip chance will remain along this boundary as it pushes eastward through eastern Kentucky for Friday and Saturday. Thus will expect the chance for showers fro all of Friday through the day on Saturday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT SUN MAR 18 2018 The TAF sites should see SCT to BKN high clouds to begin the period. Lower level clouds will begin to overspread the area from the south late between 7 and 9Z Monday, as a weather system approaches from that direction as well. CIGs should descend to low end VFR between 4 and 6K. Winds should be light and variable during the period. A few rain showers, and perhaps an isolated storm, are forecast to begin moving into the area late tomorrow afternoon. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AR SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...AR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.