-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
605
FXUS63 KJKL 051100
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
700 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower and thunderstorm potential lasts through the next 7
  days.

- Above normal temperatures are forecast through Thursday. A cold
  front should pass late in the week and bring readings down to
  near or below normal.

&&

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 700 AM EDT SUN MAY 5 2024

Made some adjustments to this mornings hourly forecast grids
using recent obs. This revealed that low temperatures at a number
of locations across eastern Kentucky were running at least a few
degrees cooler than forecast. Based on current trends, adjusted
this mornings lows to match the obs. The updated grids have been
saved, published, and sent to NDFD and remote web servers.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 456 AM EDT SUN MAY 5 2024

Active weather expected across eastern Kentucky heading into the new
work week, as a weak cold front and wave of low pressure move
through the region. Isolated to scattered storms are expected to
move through the area today, especially this afternoon into early
this evening, during peak heating, and when instability will be
maximized. A weak cold front will be the trigger for showers and
storms today, but should only provide enough lift to support
isolated to scattered convection, in spite of the moisture and
instability that will be in place. After the first round of rain
ends this evening, another round of more widespread and robust
showers and storms will begin moving into our southwest counties
very late tonight into early Monday morning. This second wave of
rain will be in response to a wave of low pressure that forms along
a slow moving cold front to our southwest. As this low moves over
our area on Monday, it will allow numerous showers and scattered
storms to fire during peak heating Monday afternoon.

The higher resolution models are all showing similar solutions
supporting only isolated to scattered convection at best, so today`s
forecast was based on that data. The NAMNEST, RAP, NAM12, and HRRR
were all in pretty good agreement on the extent of todays showers
and storms. However, considering how unstable and moist the
atmosphere will be today, decided to lean more toward scattered
activity than isolated in spite of the models output. Rain chances
on Monday should be much better since a stronger system will be
moving through, and the atmosphere will still be quite moist and
unstable. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible at times on
Monday with any thunderstorms.

Temperatures will continue to average well above normal today and
Monday, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s on tap. Winds
should be out of the southwest at 5 to 10 mph today and tomorrow,
and light and variable again tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 456 AM EDT SUN MAY 5 2024

A persistent wet weather pattern will continue in place through
the first part of the long term forecast. Generalized west
southwest flow in the mid/upper levels will overlie low level
south southwest flow off the Gulf of Mexico. A stalled frontal
boundary is forecast to be near the Ohio River Monday evening as a
shortwave trough aloft departs to the east. The front is expected
to shift north Monday night, then back south into KY by Wednesday
morning as another shortwave trough aloft tracks by, then back
north again Wednesday night. The front will finally make a strong
push southeast through our area late in the week as a more
substantial mid/upper level trough drops southeast over the
eastern CONUS. Models are coming into better agreement for a cold
frontal passage on Thursday. The presence of the frontal boundary
along with the shortwave troughs should support multiple rounds
of showers/thunderstorms, with likely POPs now in the forecast
each period from Monday night through Wednesday night area wide.
Precip may linger into Thursday, but there is some model variation
concerning the arrival of drier mid/upper level air wrapping into
a deepening storm system passing to our north on Thursday. This
drier air aloft will be fleeting, as the upper level trough drops
into the eastern CONUS. The much colder air aloft associated with
the trough should still allow for scattered showers/thunderstorms
to bubble up at times even after cold fropa as we move into the
weekend. Specific timing of impulses enhancing this activity
remains problematic at that long time range.

Our relatively weak flow aloft presently should strengthen by
Tuesday. The increasing shear will be more supportive of organized
convection, with a resulting severe thunderstorm risk beginning
on Tuesday and lasting until our last round of convection before
cold fropa.

&&

.AVIATION...
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(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT SUN MAY 5 2024

Mostly clear skies were ongoing at TAF issuance this morning. A
few high level clouds were moving our way from central Kentucky,
and should be moving over JKL and SYM be 14Z or so. Fog was noted
at a few locations early this morning, but this should quickly
dissipate once the sun has come up. Clouds will gradually
increase through out the morning, as a weak cold front pushes
through the area. Isolated showers and storms are forecast to
begin popping up and moving through by 14 or 15Z, and should
become scattered in nature by around 18Z this afternoon. VCSH was
used to account for any showers that end up moving near a TAF
site. A few thunderstorms will also be possible this afternoon
through early this evening. The first batch of rain should be out
of the area by 2 or 3Z tonight. Another round is expected to begin
moving across the TN border between 7 and 8Z on Monday. A few
showers and storms may approach SME and LOZ between 9 and 11Z on
Monday. Winds today will be out of the south or southwest at 5 to
10kts, but will shift to the west after a weak front moves
through. Winds tonight should be light and variable. Any fog that
forms tonight should be restricted mainly to deeper and more
sheltered eastern valleys.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...AR