Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 180837 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 437 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Monday) Issued at 434 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2018 A broad area of high pressure is building into the region from the NW early this morning. This will continue to advect in drier air, which will eventually erode away the lingering llvl cloud deck from north to south through this morning and early afternoon. Generally easterly winds and clear skies will be on tap for the afternoon, with temperatures forecast to rise to near 60 in most locations under the abundant sunshine. High pressure will continue into the first part of the overnight as well, with some of the deeper eastern valleys expected to drop off into the mid and upper 30s early on. However, clouds will begin filling back in from the south for the second half of the night as a surface low pressure system shifts eastward into the southern Mississippi Valley and a warm front advects northward through the deep south. This will result in southerly flow across the TN valley and portions of southeast KY, increasing the moisture flow into the region and keeping mild temperatures in place. Moisture will continue to increase throughout the day Monday as the low pressure system continues its eastward track into the TN valley and western KY by the afternoon. Expect precip chances to begin creeping into the SW portion of the CWA after 6Z tonight, with precip slowly shifting northward across the entire CWA and become widespread in nature by Monday afternoon. Most of eastern KY will be on the NE side of this passing system with abundant moisture but little instability. However, the southern extent of the CWA may be able to feed into some of the better instability to our south. As such, included thunder in the forecast for the afternoon Monday, but limited to areas generally along and south of the Hal Rogers Parkway. While SPC does nudge the Day 2 Marginal Risk into Wayne County, instability parameters for KSME and KLOZ GFS soundings still seem quite limited. This is partly due to the lack of heating, with high temperatures generally in the 50s to around 60, which will not be as conducive to priming the atmosphere for lift as was the case in this last event. Overall, don`t see much concern for numerous thunderstorms or even for severe convective activity. Kept thunder mention to isolated, as did LMK to our west and MRX to our south. The strong pump of moisture into the region from the Gulf and Atlantic could result in some good downpours Monday afternoon though, with up to a half of an inch of QPF possible (some storms could put down locally higher amounts) between 18 and 0Z in the SW portion of the CWA.
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&& .LONG TERM...
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(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 412 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2018 Active weather will continue across eastern Kentucky next week, as the long wave pattern remains amplified, but fairly progressive. Wet conditions will be in place Monday night, as a surface low pressure system moves across the Tennessee Valley. Northwest flow will linger behind the departed low pressure on Tuesday, with a deepening trough to lay out across the eastern CONUS through mid-week. Precipitation will linger across eastern Kentucky, with colder air allowing for a snow threat, particularly across the higher terrain Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Will continue to generalize the impacts, as there is still plenty of time to look for better model consensus with regards to the temperature profile. Drier conditions will work in by Wednesday evening, as ridging builds in from the west. Benign conditions will hold on through at least early Friday, before the next potential system moves in by late in the day. Still favoring a slower solution here, so did undercut the blended model guidance for the POPs, holding back the better chances until Friday night into Saturday. Temperatures will average below normal through most of next week, especially Wednesday and Thursday. Near normal readings will return by Saturday.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) ISSUED AT 144 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2018 The low pressure system that traversed eastern KY and brought us showers and thunderstorms this past afternoon/evening, has now exited SE of the state. However, lingering moisture from this system will continue the llvl clouds across the region throughout the overnight. Most locations will experience MVFR conditions, however IFR or lower CIGS may hold on at KSJS and KJKL for the next several hours. Drier air will then filter into the region late tonight and into the day tomorrow, with CIGS improving to VFR at all TAF sites by mid morning. Skies should begin to clear out from north to south throughout the afternoon and remain so through the rest of the forecast period. Winds are a bit breezy out of the north at KSME and KLOZ currently, but should dissipate by the morning. Otherwise, expect light and variable conditions though the extent of the period at all TAF sites. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...JMW is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.