Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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613 FXUS63 KJKL 232021 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 421 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 421 PM EDT MON APR 23 2018 Kentucky mesonet continues to show some gusty winds (30 to 40 mph) at the higher elevations this afternoon but these do appear to be waning just a bit. Also, these higher wind gusts generally seem confined to the higher elevations. Will continue to address this in the HWO through early evening. Have not seen any thunder yet but MOS guidance still suggest a slight potential in the far south. There are some stronger cells further south in TN. See no reason not to hang onto a slight potential through early evening. Mid/upper level low over the mid Mississippi Valley will meander eastward very slowly through the short term period, moving from the Mid-South to the Piedmont by Tuesday night. Short wave disturbances will continue to rotate around the parent low bringing a few bands or rounds of rain to the area. Surface wave will also track eastward in step with the low center aloft. Do expect a relative lull in activity between each round, including one tonight where activity will be generally more scattered in coverage but with a good portion of the forecast area seeing at least some precip through the night. The threat of rain increases again Tuesday as the low gets closer to our area. Like today can not rule out the threat of thunder Tuesday afternoon as mid level lapse rates steepen under the influence of the passing low and diurnal heating helps destabilize the boundary layer. Afternoon highs Tuesday afternoon will only climb into the lower to mid 60s with rain and cloud cover, about 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Extensive cloud cover will keep overnight lows slightly above normal levels, around 50 to lower 50s. However, patchy clearing will allow for some cooler spots and probably a little patchy fog at times. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 421 PM EDT MON APR 23 2018 A broad upper level trough will remain over the eastern United States into the upcoming weekend. Several waves will move through the mean trough, but at this time it appears their impact on eastern Kentucky will be minimal. By late in the weekend or early next week the mean trough will be shifting east, and upper level and surface ridging will begin to build into our area. By 12Z Wednesday the slow moving stacked low pressure system which brought the rainy start to the work week will finally have shifted off to our east, but it will continue to influence our weather with rain chances lingering into Wednesday. The models are in general agreement that following the exit of this low pressure area, a couple of short waves and/or upper lows will follow. One is expected to move through the Great Lakes or northern OH valley and another one is forecast to move from the plains through the southeast U.S. It appears we will be between the two systems, with only a small chance for showers in the far south on Thursday afternoon. By Friday a cold front will be approaching, but again the impact of this looks to be minimal, with shower chances so low that they will not even appear in the forecast for most areas. After this frontal passage rain chances continue to decrease, with dry weather for the weekend and into early next week. Temperatures will generally be below normal for the first part of the forecast period, but will trend warmer by early next week as ridging builds into the area. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT MON APR 23 2018 Storm system over the mid Mississippi Valley will meander eastward very slowly through the forecast period, moving from Memphis to roughly Knoxville by this time Tuesday. Surface low will move eastward along with the upper level feature. This will keep the threat of rain in the forecast, but with a relative lull through the overnight period as activity becomes a bit more scattered in nature. However, rain returns by Tuesday morning as the storm system moves ever closer to our area. In addition to the rain will can expect to see deteriorating flight conditions through MVFR and eventually into IFR territory for much of the area Tuesday. Can not rule out some isolated thunder in our south and southwest, but at present threat does not look high enough to mention anything in the TAFs. Will watch in case some activity manages to get closer to KSME or KLOZ. East-southeast winds at around 10 kts with higher gusts will decrease through the late afternoon and evening to between 5 and 10 kts. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...SBH AVIATION...RAY is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.