Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 181731 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 131 PM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 131 PM EDT SUN MAR 18 2018 Clouds have held back temps a bit in our southern counties, and a degree or two has been knocked off the forecast max temps for this afternoon. UPDATE Issued at 939 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2018 Have blended mid morning obs into the gridded forecast, mainly for trends in sky cover. Clearing is rather abrupt, but maybe a bit slower in our southwest counties than earlier expected. UPDATE Issued at 709 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2018 High pressure is taking hold of the region from the north, allowing much drier air into the region. This is evident on satellite as clouds erode away from the north across the CWA. Expect this trend to continue throughout the first half of the day, with mostly sunny skies still expected for the second half. Current sky grids may be a little too high on clouds across the far north this hour, but will quickly catch up to the current satellite trends in the next hour or two. Loaded in the latest observations for temps, dew points, and winds to make sure the near term forecast was on track with the current conditions. All updates were published and sent to NDFD/web.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 434 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2018 A broad area of high pressure is building into the region from the NW early this morning. This will continue to advect in drier air, which will eventually erode away the lingering llvl cloud deck from north to south through this morning and early afternoon. Generally easterly winds and clear skies will be on tap for the afternoon, with temperatures forecast to rise to near 60 in most locations under the abundant sunshine. High pressure will continue into the first part of the overnight as well, with some of the deeper eastern valleys expected to drop off into the mid and upper 30s early on. However, clouds will begin filling back in from the south for the second half of the night as a surface low pressure system shifts eastward into the southern Mississippi Valley and a warm front advects northward through the deep south. This will result in southerly flow across the TN valley and portions of southeast KY, increasing the moisture flow into the region and keeping mild temperatures in place. Moisture will continue to increase throughout the day Monday as the low pressure system continues its eastward track into the TN valley and western KY by the afternoon. Expect precip chances to begin creeping into the SW portion of the CWA after 6Z tonight, with precip slowly shifting northward across the entire CWA and become widespread in nature by Monday afternoon. Most of eastern KY will be on the NE side of this passing system with abundant moisture but little instability. However, the southern extent of the CWA may be able to feed into some of the better instability to our south. As such, included thunder in the forecast for the afternoon Monday, but limited to areas generally along and south of the Hal Rogers Parkway. While SPC does nudge the Day 2 Marginal Risk into Wayne County, instability parameters for KSME and KLOZ GFS soundings still seem quite limited. This is partly due to the lack of heating, with high temperatures generally in the 50s to around 60, which will not be as conducive to priming the atmosphere for lift as was the case in this last event. Overall, don`t see much concern for numerous thunderstorms or even for severe convective activity. Kept thunder mention to isolated, as did LMK to our west and MRX to our south. The strong pump of moisture into the region from the Gulf and Atlantic could result in some good downpours Monday afternoon though, with up to a half of an inch of QPF possible (some storms could put down locally higher amounts) between 18 and 0Z in the SW portion of the CWA. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 412 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2018 Active weather will continue across eastern Kentucky next week, as the long wave pattern remains amplified, but fairly progressive. Wet conditions will be in place Monday night, as a surface low pressure system moves across the Tennessee Valley. Northwest flow will linger behind the departed low pressure on Tuesday, with a deepening trough to lay out across the eastern CONUS through mid-week. Precipitation will linger across eastern Kentucky, with colder air allowing for a snow threat, particularly across the higher terrain Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Will continue to generalize the impacts, as there is still plenty of time to look for better model consensus with regards to the temperature profile. Drier conditions will work in by Wednesday evening, as ridging builds in from the west. Benign conditions will hold on through at least early Friday, before the next potential system moves in by late in the day. Still favoring a slower solution here, so did undercut the blended model guidance for the POPs, holding back the better chances until Friday night into Saturday. Temperatures will average below normal through most of next week, especially Wednesday and Thursday. Near normal readings will return by Saturday. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT SUN MAR 18 2018 Low clouds lingered at TAF issuance near the TN border, with MVFR conditions in places. Otherwise, skies were clear and visibility unrestricted. The remaining ceilings will continue to erode and break up during the afternoon, leaving VFR area wide by late in the day and lasting through the end of the period. Ceilings then make a comeback from southwest to northeast tonight, and remain through the end of the period. Heights are expected to be low end of VFR with the returning clouds.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...HAL is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.