Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 180304 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1104 PM EDT Tue Apr 17 2018 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 1104 PM EDT TUE APR 17 2018 Sky condition has become the main uncertainty for the update. Expected low cloud development has deviated a bit from what was expected. The new 00Z NAM seemed to have at least some handle on what was happening (more so than the forecast in place), and it has been blended into the forecast for tonight into early Wednesday. However, confidence is not high. UPDATE Issued at 812 PM EDT TUE APR 17 2018 Winds have diminished and will no longer be a headline issue tonight. Have blended latest obs into the forecast, and also updated forecast sky cover based on 18Z model runs.
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&& .SHORT TERM...412 PM EDT TUE APR 17 2018 Gusty westerly winds developed through the afternoon, especially over a swath of the forecast area generally north of the Mountain Parkway and south of the I-64 corridor. Sustained winds have been right around 20 mph and we`ve seen a couple gusts to around 35 mph on the Kentucky Mesonet. Will allow Lake Wind Advisory issued for the Cave Run Lake area to run its course through 6 p.m. Winds should begin to die down by then with the approach of sunset. A warm frontal boundary will lift northward across the area tonight. Clouds will develop over much of the area and help moderate overnight lows across the area, keeping our typically cooler eastern valleys well north of the freezing mark. High res models and MOS suggest there is a potential for some isolated rain shower activity as this feature moves through our area. Felt it prudent to introduce some isold shower activity for late tonight. Threat of rain subsides by sunrise Wednesday but increases again late in the day as a cold front approaches. Gradient southwest winds will increase through the morning, with the coal fields well entrenched in the warm sector of this storm system. Would not be surprised to see another Lake Wind Advisory issued tonight for the day tomorrow. Gusty southwest winds will also send afternoon temperatures up into the 70s before a cold front moves through eastern Kentucky Wednesday night, providing another shot at cooler weather to the area. This system will also provide another decent shot at scattered rain showers Wednesday night. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 342 PM EDT TUE APR 17 2018 There will be an exiting cold front moving east of the region, with a cold air mass filtering in. This combined with lingering low level cloud cover will keep temperatures in the 50s for afternoon highs Thursday. After this, a high pressure will begin to build southeast across the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley. Given the cold air mass and increasing subsidence would suspect is will be a cold night on Thursday night, with frost and freezing temperatures being the main concern. This area of surface high pressure and rising heights will be the story through Saturday. This will allow afternoon high temperatures to modify, but morning lows will support frost and freezing temperatures in many locations especially deeper valleys. A southern stream closed upper low will progress into the Lower Mississippi River Valley by Sunday and therefore did keep a slight chance of rain in portions of the Cumberland Valley. However, the data has trended further south with this feature overtime leading to drier period into early next week, as we get stuck between the previously mentioned system and a surface high moving east across the Great Lakes. There could be slight chance of rain by late Tuesday, but confidence remains lower on how this system will progress and develop. Overall the upper level pattern and mass fields are in reasonable agreement in the model guidance, with some timing and development differences particularly in regards to the southern stream upper low. Did opt to adjust temperatures down for overnight lows, as the valleys will likely be cooler than advertised by the blended guidance. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) ISSUED AT 812 PM EDT TUE APR 17 2018 A warm front moving north through the region will bring an increase in low clouds tonight, and a slight chance of showers over the northern portion of the area. This will probably result in a period of MVFR conditions for the central and northern portions of the area late tonight into Wednesday morning, but it will give way to VFR once again as the warm front lifts northward early Wednesday. Brisk southwest winds will develop on Wednesday, with afternoon gusts of 20-30 kts. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...HAL

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