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000
FXUS63 KJKL 142259 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
659 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A passing disturbance and descending weak boundary may bring
  isolated to scattered showers and storms to parts of the area
  Monday and Monday night.

- Additional chances for showers and a few storms are forecast for
  Tuesday to Wednesday night and over next weekend. Chances peak
  Wednesday to Wednesday night.

- Well above normal temperatures will be in place over the area
  through Thursday, with readings peaking in the upper 70s to low
  80s each day, or about 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 659 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2024

The forecast remains on track. Winds will remain gusty over the
next few hours, before diminishing, particularly in the valleys.
easing fire weather concerns. For now, have mainly freshened up
the hourly temperatures and dew points, incorporating the latest
trends in the observations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 440 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2024

As the period begins, an upper level low was over eastern Canada
with a trough south into the mid Atlantic and portions of the
Southeast. Further west, an upper level ridge extended from the
Gulf of Mexico through the portions of the Plains to MT while an
upper low was moving across portions of the CA and NV. At the
surface, a wavy frontal zone extended from New England to near
Lake Ontario to near Lake Erie to the Central Plains with a ridge
of sfc high pressure over the Southeast into the southern
Appalachians. Gusty southwest winds were occurring between these
two systems with warmer and gradually more moist air begin
advected into the region. Rather deep mixing was aiding in the
momentum transfer to the surface though this was also slowing the
increase in dewpoints within the boundary layer. RH across much of
the region was 30 percent or less with the winds gusting
generally to between 20 and 30 mph. An SPS for this was issued
through 01Z, or 9 PM EDT, and this was also highlighted in the
HWO.

The axis of the trough is expected to move east of the
Commonwealth later tonight and into Monday as the axis of the
upper level ridge moves to near the MS River. Northwest to west
northwest flow will linger across the Great Lakes to OH Valley
regions and weak shortwaves/disturbances will cross the area,
later tonight and into Monday. The axis of the ridge is expected
to move across eastern KY on Monday night while a shortwave
trough in advance of an upper low over the Central Plains that
will have moved to that area across the western Conus. The
boundary north of the area will approach and should sag to near
the OH River if not south of it on Monday before stalling
downstream of deepening low pressure further west along the
frontal zone in the High Plains to Central Plains. Moisture will
increase across the region tonight ahead of the boundary with PW
climbing from around the 0.55 to 0.70 inch range early this
evening to near the 0.8 to 1.1 inch range near dawn on Monday with
the higher values near and north of I-64 and lowest near the VA
border. This area of higher PW should settle across eastern KY
during Monday afternoon in advance of the boundary with PW
averaging 0.90 to 1.15 and generally remain around that range on
Monday night.

Recent guidance trends suggests convection should generally remain
north and east of eastern KY tonight, with chances increasing by
early to mid afternoon on Monday as the boundary nears and weak
disturbance or two passes. Chances wane on Monday night, but with
the boundary nearby convection cannot be ruled out particularly
for more northern and eastern locations.

Ahead of the boundary the airmass will remain mild with lows
tonight and Monday night 10 to 15 degrees above normal while highs
on Monday with increased moisture should be nearer to 10 degrees
above normal compared to todays highs that were around 15 degrees
above normal.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 509 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2024

The long term features a fairly progressive long wave pattern
over the CONUS. The model agreement is good early on, but then
gradually breaks down with time by the end of the upcoming work
week and into next weekend, particularly regarding the timing of
smaller scale features. A deeper stacked system will start out
over the central Plains, with a ridge axis laid out from the Upper
Midwest through the Ohio Valley, and southern Appalachians. The
stacked low pressure system will move northeast and dampen with
time, with a lead short wave trough moving through the Ohio Valley
Tuesday into Tuesday night, perhaps initiating some convection
near and north of the Ohio River. The stacked low reaches the
Great Lakes by Wednesday night, allowing for a cold front to move
through the Commonwealth Wednesday into Wednesday night. This
will bring our highest chance PoPs (50-70%) for the forecast
during that time.

Short wave ridging will then move in over the Ohio Valley, with
temporary dry weather taking hold across the area Thursday into
Thursday evening. Meanwhile, a northern stream upper level low
will be positioned over south central Canada by early Thursday.
This system will move through Ontario by Friday, with a positively
tilted trough aligning west southwest through the northern
Rockies. The models disagree on how much sharpness as well as how
quickly this trough and inevitably a surface cold front moves
through the Ohio and Tennessee valleys by next weekend. Have
stayed fairly close to the blended guidance with PoPs, with values
generally remaining in the chance range (20-40%) from Thursday
night through Sunday.

Well above normal temperatures will be on tap through Thursday,
with highs ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s, and lows in the
50s and 60s. Temperatures will then cool off to below normal by
Sunday, with lows in the 40s and highs in the upper 50s to lower
60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 659 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through around 12z, before MVFR
ceilings move in from the north and northwest out ahead of an
approaching cold front in the morning. These clouds will then
scatter and/or raise up back to VFR in the afternoon. West
southwest winds of 10 to 15 kts, with gusts of 15 to 25 kts, will
continue through 03z, before diminishing to 5 to 10 kts and
becoming more from the southwest. As these surface winds lessen,
an increasing threat of LLWS will take hold for the rest of the
night. LLWS will then diminish after daybreak, with surface winds
veering to the west southwest once again.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN