717
FXUS63 KJKL 051934
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
334 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower and thunderstorm potential lasts through the next 7
  days.

- Severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon through
  Wednesday night. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary
  threats, with heavy rainfall producing localized flooding also
  possible.

- Above normal temperatures are forecast through Thursday. A cold
  front should pass late in the week and bring readings down to
  near or below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 333 PM EDT SUN MAY 5 2024

A weak stationary front bisecting the forecast area from northeast
to southwest continues to be the focus for shower and thunderstorm
development this afternoon. Some of this activity has at least
briefly anchored to terrain features or the frontal boundary itself
and produced locally heavy rainfall via training, which has
necessitated the issuance of flood hazards.

This front will move little through the short term and will serve as
a focus mechanism for shower and thunderstorm development. While
today`s activity is occurring with little to no forcing for ascent
aloft, a stronger shortwave disturbance will approach the area
tonight and then cross the area Monday afternoon and evening,
bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms.

Transitory shortwave ridging builds over the area by late Monday
night and will likely limit shower and thunderstorm activity
somewhat before the next system approaches Tuesday.

Highs Monday will likely be limited by cloud cover and fairly
widespread precipitation, with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s.
Lows tonight and Monday night will be dependent on cloud cover, with
fog formation likely where there is at least partial clearing by
dawn. Lows will range from the mid 50s in the coolest sheltered
valleys to lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 456 AM EDT SUN MAY 5 2024

A persistent wet weather pattern will continue in place through
the first part of the long term forecast. Generalized west
southwest flow in the mid/upper levels will overlie low level
south southwest flow off the Gulf of Mexico. A stalled frontal
boundary is forecast to be near the Ohio River Monday evening as a
shortwave trough aloft departs to the east. The front is expected
to shift north Monday night, then back south into KY by Wednesday
morning as another shortwave trough aloft tracks by, then back
north again Wednesday night. The front will finally make a strong
push southeast through our area late in the week as a more
substantial mid/upper level trough drops southeast over the
eastern CONUS. Models are coming into better agreement for a cold
frontal passage on Thursday. The presence of the frontal boundary
along with the shortwave troughs should support multiple rounds
of showers/thunderstorms, with likely POPs now in the forecast
each period from Monday night through Wednesday night area wide.
Precip may linger into Thursday, but there is some model variation
concerning the arrival of drier mid/upper level air wrapping into
a deepening storm system passing to our north on Thursday. This
drier air aloft will be fleeting, as the upper level trough drops
into the eastern CONUS. The much colder air aloft associated with
the trough should still allow for scattered showers/thunderstorms
to bubble up at times even after cold fropa as we move into the
weekend. Specific timing of impulses enhancing this activity
remains problematic at that long time range.

Our relatively weak flow aloft presently should strengthen by
Tuesday. The increasing shear will be more supportive of organized
convection, with a resulting severe thunderstorm risk beginning
on Tuesday and lasting until our last round of convection before
cold fropa.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT SUN MAY 5 2024

VFR conditions are expected into this evening outside of brief
MVFR/IFR conditions in isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms. There are model discrepancies late tonight into
Monday which makes forecasting a bit difficult, depending on the
arrival of the next disturbance. Some models depict showers and
then thunderstorms moving in late in the overnight through Monday
morning, while other models depict partial clearing overnight
which would allow widespread fog formation during the few hours
straddling dawn, before the next round of showers and
thunderstorms move into the area after 12z-15z Monday. For now,
decided to split the difference, with future forecasts likely
being able to hedge more one way or the other with increasing
clarity on which scenario becomes more likely. At any rate, expect
widespread MVFR and possibly IFR/LIFR cigs and/or visibility after
06z through 13-14z Monday before beginning to gradually improve
through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...CMC