Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 191514 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1114 AM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 1114 AM EDT THU APR 19 2018 Sprinkles have dried up across the area, as the main trough axis shifts off to our east. A secondary short wave trough will swing southeast across Ohio and West Virginia through the rest of this afternoon. This should help anchor the clouds a bit longer, which the current forecast has captured well. Mainly just tweaked some of the temperature curves based on the latest trends in observations. Highs in the upper 40s to near 50 look on target. UPDATE Issued at 712 AM EDT THU APR 19 2018 Low stratus will continue to hold strong this morning with a few brief periods of sprinkles across northeastern Kentucky. Expect gusty northwest winds to continue into this afternoon, making for a raw day across eastern Kentucky. Have gone ahead and issued a Freeze Warning for Harlan, Letcher, and Bell Counties as clearing/decoupling tonight will allow for rural valleys to fall below freezing. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 411 AM EDT THU APR 19 2018 Light rain showers across the far eastern reaches of Kentucky will taper off into the Virginias early this morning in a post-frontal airmass. Cyclonic flow underneath a weakening upper low, located across the Ohio Valley and being absorbed into an upper low across Quebec, may promote another batch of light showers/sprinkles nearer to daybreak through this morning across northeastern Kentucky. Gusty west/northwest winds will remain in place this morning and likely into this afternoon prior to the pressure gradient relaxing later this afternoon. Upslope flow and shallow low level moisture will combine to keep low stratus in place through a good chunk of the day, keeping high temperatures confined to the upper 40s to low 50s. Surface ridging building through the Midwest this evening and tonight will allow for clearing skies and diminishing north/northwest winds, thus leading to good radiational cooling and temperatures revisiting the freezing mark. Valley locales will likely cool into the upper 20s to near 30 degrees, with ridges mainly residing in the low 30s. Near saturation in the boundary layer will promote widespread frost across all of eastern Kentucky. Have elected to issue a Freeze Warning for all but southeastern Kentucky tonight given these expected favorable conditions for abrupt cooling. A Frost Advisory has been hoisted for southeastern Kentucky at this time, but will have to monitor later trends regarding adjustments to both products. Rising heights ahead of shortwave ridging will allow for warming temperatures Friday. Surface ridging sliding across the lower Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley will keep the amount of warming in check, but readings look to generally warm into the mid 50s to low 60s during the afternoon underneath sunny skies. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 445 AM EDT THU APR 19 2018 Models continue in decent agreement to begin the period. An area of surface high pressure is expected to be centered across the Great Lakes on Friday evening while associated upper level ridge axis should initially be near the MS Valley with both progressing into the eastern Conus through Saturday evening. This will lead to a period of mostly clear skies and dry conditions through the first portion of the long term period. The temperatures will modify through the weekend, but does remain cold enough for Friday night into Saturday morning to lead to frost and possibly a freeze in eastern valleys. Patchy frost in some of the eastern or northeastern valley cold spot is not out of the question on Saturday night into early on Sunday either as the trend is for high pressure to generally dominate through Saturday night as well. Then a southern stream upper level low initially over the Four Corners at the start of the period will have moved into the Southern Plains on Saturday. This upper low should then move into the Lower Mississippi River Valley on end the weekend. The model guidance appears to be coming into better agreement with the position and track of the upper low through Monday. The GFS continues to be wetter and also has qpf further north through Monday night while the ECWMF points toward qpf only in the south. However, current trends are for dry weather for all but perhaps the southwest through sunset on Sunday. Models diverge after Monday and with run to run variability in timing and track of the upper system and with potential phasing of this system as is slowly meander toward the Appalachians with northern stream system near the end of the period. All the solutions generally point toward unsettled weather with shower potential with either some more broad troughing/open wave or more of a closed system working through followed by the approaching of the northern system. Trended slightly drier than the blended pops through Sunday evening and then did not stray far from blended model pops from Sunday night through the end of the period. This led to several periods of slight chance to chance pops. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) ISSUED AT 712 AM EDT THU APR 19 2018 A mix of VFR/MVFR ceilings currently reside across eastern Kentucky. Will see another surge of MVFR ceilings from the north this morning, likely remaining sub-VFR into this afternoon. Gusty northwest winds will continue into this afternoon with a few gusts topping 20 knots. VFR ceilings will prevail from late this afternoon through tonight while winds diminish below 10 knots. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM EDT Friday for KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-080-086>088-104-106>120. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EDT Friday for KYZ079-083>085. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...GUSEMAN is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.