Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 200242 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1042 PM EDT Sat May 19 2018 .MESOSCALE DISCUSSION... Issued at 1042 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2018 An area of clearing has now overtaken eastern Kentucky. With the llvls still very moist from today`s rains, fog is an almost certainty. In fact, we are already seeing reports of fog across portions of eastern Kentucky. Removed any lingering pops in forecast for the last hour or two, as things continue to shift east of the area. There are a showers across far south-central Kentucky, but the general trend of this convection is SE, so not expecting them to make it into our CWA overnight. That being said, the weather forecast is so far in good shape. Loaded in the latest observations for temps, dew points, and winds, to make sure the near term forecast was on track with the current conditions, especially as we continue to clear out. All updates have been published and sent to NDFD/web. A weather graphic was sent out to highlight the fog potential overnight. Also added fog wording in the HWO and sent out a new set of zones. && .UPDATE... Issued at 800 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2018 Showers and thunderstorms, along with the upper level wave aiding in the energy, are exiting east of the state, with an area of strong subsidence and clearing now moving across the central portion of the state. This will continue to work across eastern Kentucky throughout the evening and into the first half of the overnight. Given yet another day of heavy precip across much of eastern Kentucky, and the potential for subsidence and clearing as we head into the overnight, expect fog to be a slam dunk. Even as clouds begin to work back in late tonight and into the early morning hours, expect fog to be in control. In addition to updating grids throughout the afternoon/early evening to make sure they reflected the ongoing convection, the latest update has included a significant increase in the fog across eastern Kentucky overnight. Wouldn`t be surprised if some locations see widespread fog, especially in the river valleys and in locations that received significant rains later in the day. Also loaded in the latest observations to make sure the near term forecast for temps, dew points, and winds was on track with the current conditions. All grids have been published and sent to NDFD/web. A new forecast package will be sent out shortly to reflect these changes/additions. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 426 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2018 Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop and overspread eastern Kentucky this afternoon as an upper trough moves overhead. These will continue to have the potential to produce small hail and isolated wind gusts of up to 40-50 mph as cell mergers occur. Locally heavy rain will be possible as updrafts initially grow and ingest initially richer moisture. Will see these diminish early this evening as subsidence slides in behind the departing trough and instability decreases. A complex of storms moving out of Missouri tonight into Sunday morning should remain west and north of the Bluegrass region as heights increase ahead of upper ridging nosing north of the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Will then see some minimal shower/storm chances through the day as adequate moisture remains in place. Forcing will consist of some possible outflow boundaries, potentially interacting with the Cumberland Plateau and terrain features across southeast Kentucky. Temperatures warming into the mid 80s should provide for sufficient instability, with conditional storm chances based on mesoscale forcing. Greater storm chances will materialize Sunday evening into the night as an upper impulse and frontal boundary approach the Ohio Valley. Strong winds and heavy rainfall will be possible with storms that fire ahead of the front as shear profiles should allow for largely outflow dominated convection. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 300 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2018 The extended will feature periods of showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours, through Wednesday. A ridge of high pressure is then forecast to bring a short period of dry weather to eastern Kentucky from Wednesday night through early Friday morning. A series of weak areas of low pressure passing by to the south of the area may bring more rain to eastern Kentucky Friday afternoon into Friday night, but with the model data being a bit uncertain with this part of the forecast, only small chances of rain have been included for next Friday. Temperatures will be running well above normal across the area, with daily highs maxing out in the low to mid 80s and nightly lows only falling into the low to mid 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) ISSUED AT 1035 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2018 After another wet day across eastern Kentucky, an area of clearing and subsidence is now moving in across the area. This will lead to fog development throughout the night. In fact, expect that most TAF sites could see periods of LIFR or below airport min conditions by late tonight. That being said, another round of VFR clouds are expected to begin setting in across eastern Kentucky late tonight and into the morning hours. Still some uncertainty on how or even if these clouds will affect the ongoing fog, but erred on the side of pessimism, with conditions only improving as we head into the daytime hours. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are then forecasted for the afternoon and evening, but confidence is low on the timing and impacts to the TAF sites, so kept VFR conditions through the rest of the TAF period. Winds will be light and variable through the night, becoming prevailing from the SW during the day tomorrow, while remaining under 10 knots. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...JMW

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