047
FXUS63 KJKL 081956
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
356 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Our main thunderstorm potential lasts into early Thursday, with
  some showers then possible at times through early next week.

- Severe thunderstorms are possible until late tonight or early
  Thursday morning. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary
  threats, but there is also a risk of tornadoes. Locally heavy
  rainfall could also lead to flash flooding, especially in the
  Cumberland basin.

- Above normal temperatures are forecast through Thursday. A cold
  front passing on Thursday will bring cooler temperatures from
  Friday through early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 345 PM EDT WED MAY 8 2024

Effective warm frontal boundary has lifted north across southern KY,
with new storms increasing in coverage now that earlier stratiform
rains have ended. Upstream storms have produced some hail and wind
reports, with a potential tornado farther into western KY. As the
afternoon rolls on, expect instability to increase in our southern
KY counties, bringing a threat for hail, damaging winds, and at
least a narrow window for tornado potential. The farther you get
from the KY/TN border, the smaller the window for severe potential
late this afternoon and evening. In fact, overall rainfall totals
from hi-res models have come down the farther north you go. Will let
the ongoing Flood Watch hang on for now, but wouldn`t be surprised
if it could let parts of it go later this evening.

As we get into Thursday, a broad area of low pressure will be
crossing northeast KY. We`ll keep in chances for thunderstorms, but
these will not be severe, and those chances will end by late
afternoon as the low heads to the mid-Atlantic coast. We`ll see some
sunshine by then as well, and expect temperatures to rise to the
upper 70s to around 80.

Thursday night, another shortwave rotates across the Midwest and
will bring in some light rain chances towards daybreak Friday. Lows
should generally be in the lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 356 PM EDT WED MAY 8 2024

The 08/12z model suite analysis shows mean troughing extending
from Eastern Canada down in the the Northeast US/Great Lakes/Ohio
Valley through Friday and most of the upcoming weekend. Shortwave
upper level disturbances passing through the trough will bring an
opportunity for weak convection on both Friday and Saturday
afternoons. Instability is very meager on both days, but may be
sufficient for a few isolated rumbles on thunder on Saturday.
Heights finally begin to rise on Sunday, likely keeping the
afternoon cumulus field subdued. Temperatures will be cool on the
cool side with highs generally in 60s on Friday, mid 60s to near
70 on Saturday and upper 60s to mid 70s on Sunday. Skies are
expected to trend partly cloudy to clear each night, setting the
stage for chilly nights with lows ranging in the 40s and extensive
fog formation in the river valleys.

As the upper level trough departs northeastward, ridging briefly
returns later Sunday and into early Monday. Meanwhile, another
upper low/trough will eject from the Desert Southwest out onto the
Plains. This will foster a new low pressure system tracking
slowly from the Red River Valley of the South on Monday to across
the Ohio Valley by Wednesday. After one more chilly night with
lows in the 40s on Sunday night, southerly flow will push
temperatures noticeably warmer with forecast highs in the mid to
upper 70s and lows in the 50s to lower 60s through Wednesday. Weak
diurnally-modulated modulated convection is anticipated each
day from Monday through Wednesday. GFS soundings suggest that the
instability will remain to shallow for thunder on Monday, but
should become deep enough for at least a few thunderstorms on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Weak lapse rates and marginal shear should
preclude any notable severe weather threat.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT WED MAY 8 2024

Light rains across southern KY will continue shifting eastward.
Storms will start to fire mid to late afternoon, except for mid-
evening for KSJS/KSYM. Expecting another broad area of rain
showers to develop overnight. Ceilings should lower late tonight,
with perhaps IFR conditions at those two northern sites likely
after midnight toward daybreak. Storm chances diminish by
daybreak areawide, with conditions slowly improving. Winds will
pick up from the southwest Thu. early afternoon.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Thursday morning for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHARP
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...SHARP