Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 220755 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 355 AM EDT Tue May 22 2018 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 348 AM EDT TUE MAY 22 2018 Current conditions across the area feature some mid and upper level cloud cover moving through the area. In addition, the last of a few showers will move northeast out of the Bluegrass area. With the cloud cover moving through, fog development has been halted. A few spots in the south with some clearing will see some visibility drop but this is the exception. The overall pattern indicates a continued return flow with ample moisture continuing to stream north into the OH Valley. This will be the case heading into the day today. Model soundings indicate a continued PWAT values of 1.65. Though as been the case for the pas several days, the lack of a good impulse tracking by and organizing this convection, the activity remains largely scattered despite the amount of moisture being pumped into the region. Thus will go for a good chance heading into today. A weakened front from the north will begin push southeast through the day. Convection will intensify a bit along this washed out boundary as it pushed southeast. Will keep pop chances going through the day today and into tonight. Despite the scattered nature of the showers and storms, this is still a saturated air mass and any storm can put down enough rain to cause some minor flooding issues. For tonight, good saturation of the boundary layer will allow for fog development with ongoing showers through the night slowly pushing southeast. Behind the boundary, the hint of some clearing as some dry air attempts to enter area will allow for some more widespread fog to develop. Heading into the day on Wednesday, the front will have pushed southeast and slow along the TN and VA border. Will expect some shower and a few thunderstorms to develop along the boundary and especially in the higher terrain. Meanwhile clearing skies to the northwest will allow temps to rebound into the low 80s. This is still above normal despite the cooler air moving into the area. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 355 AM EDT TUE MAY 22 2018 The models are in fair agreement with the longwave pattern and major features aloft through the extended portion of the forecast. They all depict a relatively weak full latitude ridge over the region to start this portion of the forecast. This ridge weakens and fades out by the end of the work week under twin assault from the northern stream and a potential tropical system to the south. The northern stream will return a flow of energy into the Great Lakes region to start the weekend while to the south heights will be falling due to the developing upper low along the central Gulf Coast. Some energy associated with this low will start to ooze into Kentucky late in the weekend and to start the next week. The main factor in the model differences late in the period revolve around the depth and development of this southern low with the ECMWF more aggressive than the GFS having a mid level low somewhat deeper and more westerly than the GFS. Will favor a blended solution here with monitoring needed to see if the deeper scenario of the ECMWF starts to pan out and work better with the predictions out of the NHC - in time. Sensible weather will feature a respite from the afternoon/evening showers and storms - and their periodic deluges - from Wednesday night through Friday. However, after that, return flow moisture and potential for tropical interaction will put us right back in an environment of potential heavy rains from diurnally enhanced showers and storms for Friday night through Monday. This will be more so the case should the ECMWF solution pan out when compared to the GFS, but both suggest a wet and active weekend and beyond. For now we will need to make the most of the dry patch to close out the work week. Made mainly terrain based adjustments to the lows each night during the work week from the SuperBlend starting point with enough dry air initially suggesting small to moderate ridge and valley temperature splits. Did not deviate far from the blended PoPs into the weekend, though did beef them up each afternoon to better match the anticipated diurnal impact on this upcoming pattern.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT TUE MAY 22 2018 Expect VFR conditions to persist through much of the night. The only exception is in the north where some showers and thunderstorms will be passing through to the north impacting SYM as well. Later tonight, where clouds are slower to increase, expect some valley fog to develop. This is especially true at SME and LOZ. At least MVFR conditions will occur. Heading into the day, showers and thunderstorms will once again develop, mostly by 15 and 16z. This activity will continue the evening. Coverage is in question so went VCTS at the TAF sites. Outside of thunderstorms, winds will be relatively light. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...GREIF AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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