Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 210533 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 133 AM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 1100 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2018 Forecast still looking good so far tonight. The frost advisory was updated with freshened up wording and was just issued. The forecast overall was in good shape with no major changes needed. UPDATE Issued at 729 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2018 The forecast has been on track so far this evening. Mostly clear skies and light winds should prevail across the area overnight through early tomorrow morning. The latest obs from the past few hours were ingested into the forecast grids to establish new trends. No update to the forecast is planned at this time. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 359 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2018 Surface high pressure is currently centered across the Great Lakes, with upper level ridging working in towards the Mississippi Valley. Drier air has mixed down across eastern Kentucky this afternoon, with some dew points in the teens noted in some places. Winds will remain light tonight under clear skies, setting the stage for another chilly night, with frost. Consequently, have issued a frost advisory for the entire area, with mainly valleys seeing the frost. Some of the more typically cold spots will see lows in the upper 20s, while ridges see upper 30s. The upper level ridge will dampen as it crosses the Mississippi Valley into Saturday, as an upper level low currently centered near the Four Corners region rotates east. Still, 1000-500 mb thicknesses will continue to increase across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys, allowing for warmer highs, generally in the 65 to 70 degree range under mostly sunny skies. Clouds will be on the increase Saturday night, especially after midnight, as the upper level low approaches from the west. Another quick drop off in the sheltered valleys should allow for some mid to upper 30s readings, with most other locations ranging from the low to mid 40s. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 336 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2018 A upper level ridge axis will still be extending across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Sunday. This will help slow the progression of rain showers activity northward and still may be too quick on the progression northward overall. Did opt to adjust from what the blended data provided for Sunday, but tried to remain match up with the neighboring offices. The NAM is the wetter outlier this afternoon for Sunday into Sunday night and this could be some influence in the blended data. This southern stream upper level low will remain the culprit for unsettled weather across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys through much of the period. This southern stream system will eventually phase with a northern stream upper level wave, but the guidance diverges greatly at this point on the depth and forward progression of the northern stream feature. This leads to a low confidence forecast from midweek onward. The slight to chance POPs provided by the blended guidance seems reasonable at this point and therefore little changes were made to the forecast for this period. In general, the temperatures through the long term will remain near normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT SAT APR 21 2018 VFR conditions to continue with generally northeast to southeast winds of less than 10 knots.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
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&& $$ UPDATE...AR SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...GUSEMAN

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