Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 211919 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 319 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 126 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2018 A nearby surface high across the Great Lakes, and a upper level ridge axis extending from the Gulf Coast into the Upper Midwest will lead to tranquil and dry conditions across eastern Kentucky. This leads to little if any changes needed for this update cycle. UPDATE Issued at 709 AM EDT SAT APR 21 2018 Areas of valley frost will continue early this morning with temperatures having dropped into the upper 20s to near 30. Temperatures will warm above freezing by mid morning and continue quickly warming through this morning into this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 400 AM EDT SAT APR 21 2018 High pressure continues to assert itself across eastern Kentucky with only a few strands of cirrus streaming in. These will increase through the day downstream of an upper level low pressure system currently churning overtop Denver. Shortwave ridging will nudge eastward across the Commonwealth as it flattens, but heights/thicknesses will nonetheless increase as subsidence keeps dry conditions in place and leads to further warming this afternoon with highs topping out in the mid-upper 60s north of Mountain Parkway and low-mid 70s south. Light north/northeast winds will veer a bit more easterly tonight in response to surface ridging across the Great Lakes to mid-Atlantic coast crawling eastward. While cloud cover will gradually thicken/lower tonight, valleys in the Big Sandy region should still see a sizable dropoff in temperatures, cooling to the mid 30s. A few areas of frost will thus be possible once again along with some patchy valley fog. The previously mentioned upper low will dig south across the southern Plains and into the lower Mississippi Valley Sunday with an attendant surface low immediately downwind. Increasing precipitable water values and at least mid clouds will stream northeast into the Lake Cumberland region. Still some uncertainty as to how much the upper low will dig and subsequently how fast it will shift east, keeping the best rain chances southwest of Kentucky through the day. Downslope winds will aid in maintaining a dry near-surface layer, but will still keep low-end PoPs in for the Lake Cumberland region and far southeast Kentucky. Any rain that does occur through the afternoon will be light at less than one tenth of an inch, prior to better chances taking shape into early week. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 320 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2018 Closed upper level low to our southwest will slowly rotate into the area Monday into Tuesday. Strong southeast flow will be in place at the start of the period with some upper level divergence spreading across the area. Low levels will be tough to saturate given the strong flow coming off the Smokies, but the upper level divergence may be enough to produce a hundredth or two of an inch of precipitation Monday morning. Most of the day should be dry with the strong southeast flow. With this said, left a window of higher pops in the morning with the divergence aloft, but went drier into the afternoon and evening hours as the flow strengthens and we lose the upper level support. The southeast flow continues Monday night. Models continue to be generous with the rainfall, but until the flow becomes more southwest or west later on Tuesday, we may be hard pressed to get much shower activity. Did bump highs up a good 5 degrees on Monday with the strong southeast downslope flow in play. We will see some rain chances on Tuesday as the upper level low rotates into east Kentucky. A shortwave trough will act to finally kick things out by Wednesday with rain chances coming to an end later in the day. Models are still in great disagreement late next week, but are trending towards a strong shortwave trough that may bring a period of rain to the area followed by a decent shot of colder air. Just how cold depends on the strength of the trough. At this point no plans to mention any freeze or frost concerns with so much uncertainty. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2018 A nearby surface high across the Great Lakes, and a upper level ridge axis extending from the Gulf Coast into the Upper Midwest will lead VFR condition for this TAF period. Winds will remain light and variable through the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...DJ

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