Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 170358 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1158 PM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 1155 PM EDT MON APR 16 2018 Did a quick update mainly to touch up the hourly T and Td grids per the latest obs and trends. Also updated the NPW and ZFP to clean up some evening wording. The grids have been sent to the NDFD and web servers. UPDATE Issued at 910 PM EDT MON APR 16 2018 00z sfc analysis shows high pressure working into the state from the west with cyclonic flow starting to relax over eastern Kentucky. Even so, scattered snow showers - enhanced by the upslope low level flow continue. Look for these to taper to flurries and come to an end later tonight with up to a fresh coating of snow possible on elevated surfaces and bare ground. Clouds will start to break up from southwest to northeast late this evening and into the overnight - with areas of frost possible late. Otherwise the winds are beginning to subside with sunset so the lake wind advisory has been cancelled while temperatures are near or below freezing most places. Accordingly, we started the NPW - freeze warning at 00z to account for this with readings steady to slightly lower through the rest of the night. This updated resulted in a fresh NPW, HWO, and ZFP. The grids have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 242 PM EDT MON APR 16 2018 Eastern trough will continue to keep eastern Kentucky cold through tonight. Current rain/snow shower activity will slowly taper of flurries and sprinkles this evening before coming an an end. The activity may hold on a bit longer than expected as the trough remain fairly stout into the evening hours. While gradient will remain tight tonight, allowing for some wind, temperatures should get below freezing allowing the freeze warning to continue. The lake wind advisory will also continue into this evening until winds can diminish a bit. The upper trough will start to lift out tomorrow with heights on the rebound across the region. This will lead to generally clear skies on Tuesday. However, decent mixing could keep winds rather gusty out of the west. With the high pressure pushing across the area Tuesday night, should see some nice ridge/valley splits. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 346 PM EDT MON APR 16 2018 Models are in good agreement with the upper level pattern through the period. The period is expected to begin with shortwave upper level ridging across the region with an upper level low over the St Lawrence Valley, upper level low over the Plains/MO Valley a ridge the Rockies an upper level low nearing the Pacific NW. The shortwave upper level ridge will move move to the eastern seaboard at midweek with high pressure extending from the eastern Pacific across Mexico into the gulf of Mexico and portions of the Caribbean. Meanwhile and upper level low will track into the Great Lakes on Wed/Wed night and then merge with a shortwave trough before meandering over the Northeast and into the Maritimes through the start of the weekend. Locally, the 500 mb trough axis associated with the upper level low moving into the Great Lakes should move through the OH Valley and into the Appalachians from late Wed into Thu. Initial upper level flow out of the west to west southwest will become northwest on Thu with northwest persisting across the region into Friday. Heights though should begin to rise from late Thursday into Friday night as the axis of an upper level ridge approaches. Then over the weekend, the axis upper level ridge should dampen and shift to the southeast to end the weekend while a shortwave trough passes by to the northeast and another upper level low reaches the MS Valley on Sunday evening and the Southeast on Monday. At the surface, a developing warm front lifting into the Ohio Valley will provide warm air advection Wednesday, as afternoon high temperatures climb into the low to mid 70s. The upper level low passing to our north and east will pull an associated surface low into the Great Lakes, with an attendant cold front pushing into the region late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Overall model trends till indicate that upper level forcing will be quite weak and not much in the way of moisture return, and therefore this will lead to light QPF and low POP generally chances Wednesday afternoon and evening. QPF with this appears minimal, less than a tenth of an inch across the area. In the wake of the front, expect colder weather to ensue once again, as 850mb temperatures drop back below zero late Wed night and Thursday bottoming out near -3C to -4C. Then, as the upper ridge moves east, is and an associated area of surface high will lead to another period of dry weather, with frost possible Friday and Saturday mornings. There will be some modification to over the weekend, with afternoon highs climbing back into the 60s for Saturday and Sunday. Then as the southern stream upper level low moves east toward the southeast, will lead to chances of showers especially across the south late Saturday night into Sunday night or early on Monday. QPF at this point looks minimal. Overall, the weather should be much drier that what has been experienced from late winter into early spring. With the overall long range models are showing good agreement agreement in the general synoptic patterns. There remains some timing differences in the upper levels especially at the end of the period this weekend. Given this have continued to stick closer to the blended model data for most of the period with some ridge/valley local affects for lows on Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) ISSUED AT 830 PM EDT MON APR 16 2018 Any lingering MVFR cigs will lift to VFR later this evening as the scattered snow showers come to an end. Look for the clouds to erode through the overnight hours. Some clouds may hang on in northeast Kentucky, but are expected to remain VFR. Brisk west winds will subside through evening, and remain steady out of the west on Tuesday at around 10 kts. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT Tuesday for KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...DJ/JP AVIATION...GREIF

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