Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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799 FXUS63 KJKL 230320 AAB AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1120 PM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 1120 PM EDT SUN APR 22 2018 Updated the forecast to remove outdated wording from the text forecast product and to speed up precipitation onset in our southwest and southern counties by a couple of hours per current trends in model data and obs. UPDATE Issued at 740 PM EDT SUN APR 22 2018 The forecast remains on track so far this evening. Mostly to cloudy skies will persist overnight, with rain showers expected to move into the area from the southwest late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Will leave the forecast as is for now, but will need to update later in the shift to make other small adjustments and to remove outdated wording form the zone forecast text product. Ingested the latest obs into the hourly forecast to establish new trends.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 351 PM EDT SUN APR 22 2018 The latest surface analysis shows an area of surface high pressure continue to retreat northward. The east to southeast winds continue to lead to downslope flow and drier conditions across the region this afternoon. The latest scans of the regional WSR-88D radars suggest some of the rain shower activity is just now creeping into Wayne County. Given the continued slower trend, did opt to lower POPs for the afternoon. This upper level low to our south will continue to rotate east and eventually divergence aloft will lead to best chances of rain showers early Monday. Then a lull in activity is expected later in the day mainly in the far east, as 1000 to 850 mb winds increase leading to increased downsloping. The 00Z NAEFS standard anomaly tables show the 850mb winds are going to be oriented southeast and running greater than 3 standard deviations above normal. There is some weak instability in the Lake Cumberland region Monday afternoon and did lean toward slight chance thunder. The upper level divergence becomes broad Monday night, but the surface low and trough will come east. This will lead to increasing chances of POPs once again Monday night. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 340 PM EDT SUN APR 22 2018 Upper level low will continue to cross the area Tuesday into Tuesday night with the unsettled weather continuing. Some rumbles of thunder will be possible with a little elevated instability present on Tuesday. Best rain chances will reside on Tuesday, before the forcing exits east and north. However, with weak upslope flow continuing into Wednesday, a few isolated showers or pockets of drizzle may be possible. Drier weather returns for Wednesday night and Thursday with a surface high crossing the area. Still looks like another shortwave trough will cross the area Friday into early Saturday with still some timing and strength differences in the models. Thus, will maintain small rain chances Friday and Friday night. If the trough is stronger as a few models indicate, we could see a modest cool down for Saturday. However, models continue to flip flop on the strength. Any cool down will be short lived as heights will start to build again by Sunday with a pleasant end to the weekend expected. There is a chance most of the weekend could be nice if the trough for Friday night is weaker. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT SUN APR 22 2018 VFR conditions with BKN to OVC cloud cover prevails to begin the TAF period. These conditions will likely persist through the end of the period. Rain showers are expected to begin affecting LOZ and SME around 8Z, 11 to 12Z at JKL and around 13Z at SYM and SJS. There may be brief periods of MVFR conditions where rain showers are a bit more intense or long lasting. We can also expect low level wind shear at the TAF sites between 8 and 11Z Monday as the low level jet stream strengthens across the region. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AR SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...AR

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