Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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674 FXUS63 KJKL 200219 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1019 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 1019 PM EDT THU APR 19 2018 There are no substantive changes to the forecast. Except for a few clouds over Black Mountain, skies have cleared, and grids have been updated accordingly. UPDATE Issued at 711 PM EDT THU APR 19 2018 Latest obs have been blended into the forecast, without any significant changes. Most lingering clouds will dry up this evening, with a cold night to follow.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 344 PM EDT THU APR 19 2018 Surface high pressure is currently centered across southern Minnesota. Aloft, a trough is moving towards the Eastern Seaboard, with ridging centered across the Plains. A much cooler day has been on tap for eastern Kentucky in the wake of the cold front that passed through last night. Temperatures are running 30 to 35 degrees colder compared to yesterday at this time at most locations. Skies will gradually clear out tonight as high pressure builds in from the northwest. This will set the stage for lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s for most sites, and will continue to let the current frost/freeze headlines ride. Friday will feature a mostly sunny day, with highs generally in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Drier air will likely mix down in the afternoon, allowing for another cooler night in the valleys for Friday night. Lows will modify somewhat, but still expect at least some lower 30s in the typically colder locations with areas of frost. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 339 PM EDT THU APR 19 2018 The period will begin with upper level ridging maximized across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. This along with a surface high will keep the region dry for Saturday into Saturday night. A southern stream upper level low will slowly progress eastward into the Lower Mississippi River Valley by Sunday and diffluence aloft will help bring increased chances of rain to the Cumberland Valley region by Sunday evening and night. Also, thought the blended guidance seemed reasonable bringing some likely POPs into the far south and based on the divergence aloft this would be most likely to occur early in the day on Monday. This upper level low will keep the weather unsettled as it rotates across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into early next week. After this, the models begin to diverge in solutions as they struggle with phasing of the northern and southern streams. Given this could not justify leaning away form the blended guidance for the later part of the forecast. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) ISSUED AT 626 PM EDT THU APR 19 2018 VFR conditions are forecast through the period, with winds less than 10 kts. Any lingering VFR ceilings should dissipate this evening. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT Friday for KYZ044-050>052-058>060- 068-069-080-086>088-104-106>120. Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for KYZ079-083>085.
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&& $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...HAL

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