Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 142003 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 403 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 316 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2018 Northwest flow has kept clouds and flurries over the eastern part of the forecast area through the afternoon, but flurries will finally end by early this evening. The overnight forecast challenge is the low temperature forecast. Based on current observed temperatures, at least a temporary break in cloud cover for part of the night, and snow on the ground in some areas, overnight lows will likely be lower than the blended guidance and also the MOS guidance for the main ASOS sites. Some COOP MOS guidance indicates lows in the teens, but that seems too cold. Warm advection does set in overnight, and how long a break in cloudiness occurs is uncertain. Have gone with lows mainly in the 25 to 30 degree range, but this will need to be monitored this evening and likely adjusted. With abundant mid March sunshine forecast for Thursday temperatures will climb into the 50s in most areas, with highs ranging from lower 50s north and east to upper 50s southwest. A dry cold front will pass through the area Thursday before stalling in the TN Valley Thursday night. Some overrunning precipitation may develop north of this front over southern parts of the forecast area by daybreak Thursday. Thursday night lows should range from the mid 20s in the northern part of the forecast area to the mid 30s in the south. If precipitation does develop, thermal profiles support the idea of the possibility of a narrow ribbon of very light snow or sleet on the northern edge of the precipitation at the onset. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 403 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2018 The extended period will begin with a system coming in from the west. The models are coming into better agreement with this first disturbance, with both the ECMWF and GFS showing a cutoff low transforming into more of a shallow trough as it moves over the Ohio Valley the first part of the weekend. With the passage of this first system, temperatures will be in the mid 40s to low 50s during the day Friday. The precipitation will be mainly rain, but a mix of sleet and freezing rain will be possible late Friday into Saturday morning due to lower nighttime temperatures in the far north/northeastern portion of the CWA. A brief period of ridging will bring drier weather Sunday afternoon into the evening until a more amplified trough moves in from the west later that night into Monday morning. This second disturbance looks to be a bit more amplified and has a higher potential to bring in more precipitation than the early weekend system. This is due to a warm front that will set up to the south of the Commonwealth, and with south/southwesterly flow will bring in ample Gulf moisture. The precipitation type will be mainly rain for this second system, but a rain/snow mix is possible late Tuesday into Wednesday morning as a passing cold front ushers in colder air from the north into eastern Kentucky. Therefore, after the weekend temperature warm up, temps will cool down again into midweek next week. The models agree overall in terms of timing for both systems. However, there is still a bit of uncertainty with the precipitation amounts due to the ECMWF running a bit cooler and showing less QPF than the GFS. Confidence in timing has increased, but future model runs will be monitored to see if the models come into better agreement with the intensity of the second system.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2018 Northwest flow across the area continues to bring widespread clouds to all but the far southwest part of the forecast area. Ceilings were gradually lifting, but MVFR ceilings will persist in the eastern part of the forecast area through the afternoon. Scattered flurries and isolated snow showers have persisted, resulting in very local visibility restrictions as well. Flurries will end and clouds will continue to lift and decrease in coverage, with VFR conditions expected overnight and into Thursday. Late tonight and into early Thursday low level wind shear is expected to develop. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SBH LONG TERM...CGAL AVIATION...SBH is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.