Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 191824 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 224 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 224 PM EDT MON MAR 19 2018 Despite substantial mid/high level clouds, temperatures have warmed enough that they are going to end up overshooting the original forecast highs, and max temps have been adjusted upward for today. UPDATE Issued at 1004 AM EDT MON MAR 19 2018 No substantive changes were made. Mid morning obs have been blended into the afternoon`s gridded forecast. UPDATE Issued at 817 AM EDT MON MAR 19 2018 Freshened up the POP and sky trends through this afternoon. Some thinness in the clouds is noted on satellite this morning across our area. Have therefore lowered the sky cover a bit through this morning, and then ramped it up into this afternoon, as the surface low draws closer from the west. Have also delayed the thunder a bit longer in the day, as the latest model data has trended a bit slower with the meager instability. Updates have been sent.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 403 AM EDT MON MAR 19 2018 The latest surface map features low pressure moving across the southern Plains. A weaker inverted trough is currently aligned from the Tennessee Valley to the central Appalachians, with a more defined warm front aligned from west to east across the Gulf Coast States. Aloft, an upper level low is moving east across the southern Plains. Some showers have broken out across the Tennessee Valley overnight, thanks to some ongoing isentropic lift between 850 and 700 mb. Drier air in the low levels have kept this activity out of eastern Kentucky. The dry air will continue to keep most of our area precipitation- free through the morning, with the exception of perhaps a few sprinkles. Moisture will be on the increase this afternoon, as the short wave and surface low continue to trek east across the Mississippi Valley. Showers, and perhaps a few storms will threaten from southwest to northeast, with the best rain chances holding off until this evening as the surface low moves across the eastern portion of the Commonwealth. Temperatures will top out in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Some dry slotting will work in after midnight and through the morning on Tuesday, with less rain chances. Light precipitation will then fill back in again across the area during the afternoon, as a deeper trough takes shape across the eastern CONUS. The surface low will be just off to the east, allowing for a good gradient of temperatures. Highs on Tuesday will range from the mid 40s across our northwest to the mid 50s bordering Virginia. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 451 AM EDT MON MAR 19 2018 The extended forecast begins with an amplified trough centered right over the Ohio Valley, progressing east. This will bring precip chances to eastern Kentucky through early Thursday. Brief ridging will then take hold, with the weather drying out and temps warming up until the second system of interest develops over the weekend. The models seem to agree decently well with the first system. But, the GFS looks to be slightly faster with less wrap around precip mainly affecting the Commonwealth late Tuesday into Wednesday, with residual precip lingering into Thursday. The ECMWF is showing higher QPF with this wrap around, resulting in higher chances of snow showers. Therefore, there is still a bit of uncertainty in snowfall amounts but any accumulation should be light. There is higher uncertainty, resulting in less confidence, in the second system that looks to move into eastern Kentucky late Friday into Saturday. The GFS is faster with this system by at least 6 hours according to the latest model run. Not only that, but the GFS QPF is much more stout with three quarters to near an inch over the CWA. The ECMWF, however, shows the system tracking a bit further north and not producing as much QPF. With the uncertainty in timing and precip amounts, have opted with the Blend for the most part, but also trended a bit slower with the entrance of the precip as more guidance has leaned towards a slower advance. As for temperatures, there will be a gradual warm up for eastern Kentucky. Temps start in the 40s Wednesday, but by the end of the period warm to the mid to upper 50s in the north and low 60s in the south. Lastly, with calm winds and clear skies, there is potential for a ridge/valley temperature split Thursday night. However, with northerly flow, the split is not anticipated to be substantial. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT MON MAR 19 2018 VFR conditions with mid to high level clouds will give way to deteriorating conditions tonight. Showers should overspread the area from west to east between 23Z and 02Z. Some early evening thunderstorms will also be possible, especially around KEKQ, KSME, KLOZ, and K1A6. MVFR conditions will follow closely behind the arrival of showers. The main batch of showers is expected to weaken and move away to the east by around 06Z. However, no lasting improvement in conditions is forecast. In fact, ceilings will fall to IFR for most places overnight into Tuesday morning.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...CGAL AVIATION...HAL is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.