Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 220712 AAC AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 312 AM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 1035 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2018 The forecast was in good shape. Updated the zone forecast text product to remove outdated evening wording. Also tweaked the hourly weather grids using the latest obs to establish new trends. UPDATE Issued at 747 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2018 The forecast is on track so far this evening. The latest obs were ingested into the hourly forecast grids to establish new trends. Other than that, no other changes were necessary. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 340 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2018 The afternoon surface analysis shows an area of high pressure posted up across the Great Lakes and the upper level ridge remains in place from the Gulf Coast to the Upper midwest. This leading to mostly sunny skies and dry conditions across eastern Kentucky. Matter of fact many areas of seeing afternoon relative humidity values in the upper teens this afternoon, but the winds have remained light leading to less of the fire weather concern overall. Ahead of the approaching upper level system we will see increasing high clouds through the night, but given the low dewpoints some of the eastern valleys could see a touch of patchy frost tonight. Given the clouds and patchy nature headlines will not be hoisted at this time. All eyes turn to the upper level low that will deepen as it moves southeast into the Lower Mississippi River Valley Sunday. This will provide divergence aloft that will eventually bring some rain shower activity northward into the Cumberland Valley late Sunday. The real issue that will remain a issue in the eastern and northeastern portions of the region will be the strong downslope flow off the Smokies. Given this have been slow to progress precipitation into the region Late Sunday into Sunday night. Also, did opt to lower QPF Sunday night given the same issues. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 340 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2018 Closed upper level low to our southwest will slowly rotate into the area Monday into Tuesday. Strong southeast flow will be in place at the start of the period with some upper level divergence spreading across the area. Low levels will be tough to saturate given the strong flow coming off the Smokies, but the upper level divergence may be enough to produce a hundredth or two of an inch of precipitation Monday morning. Most of the day should be dry with the strong southeast flow. With this said, left a window of higher pops in the morning with the divergence aloft, but went drier into the afternoon and evening hours as the flow strengthens and we lose the upper level support. The southeast flow continues Monday night. Models continue to be generous with the rainfall, but until the flow becomes more southwest or west later on Tuesday, we may be hard pressed to get much shower activity. Did bump highs up a good 5 degrees on Monday with the strong southeast downslope flow in play. We will see some rain chances on Tuesday as the upper level low rotates into east Kentucky. A shortwave trough will act to finally kick things out by Wednesday with rain chances coming to an end later in the day. Models are still in great disagreement late next week, but are trending towards a strong shortwave trough that may bring a period of rain to the area followed by a decent shot of colder air. Just how cold depends on the strength of the trough. At this point no plans to mention any freeze or frost concerns with so much uncertainty. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2018 Surface high pressure will gradually depart to the northeast of the area while the axis of upper level ridging should move northeast of the area after about 18Z. This will allow a low pressure system to approach with moisture gradually increasing, at mid and upper levels first followed by the lower levels by the last 6 hours of the period. Winds will generally be light through the period, though the pressure gradient will increase enough late for southeast winds nearing 10KT at LOZ and SME with even higher speeds above 2000 feet.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AR SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...JP

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