Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 251911 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 311 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 311 PM EDT WED APR 25 2018 Extensive cloud field on the back side of east coast storm system covers the upper and mid Ohio Valley this afternoon. Surface moisture will remain in place as fairly decent subsidence develops aloft over the boundary layer. Subsidence may be strong enough to cause lower stratocu deck to thicken and lower again. Thus expect the potential for some patchy dense fog to develop over potions of the area overnight. Further out, mid/upper level low will round the base of a larger broad eastern CONUS trough during the short term. Closer to the surface, a wave of low pressure will develop over the Mid-South and track through the Tennessee Valley region Thursday into Friday morning. Thus rain will return Thursday and Thursday night, mainly south of the I-64 corridor. Overall temperatures remain cool through the short term with near normal overnight lows and highs about 5-10 degrees below normal Thursday. But better weather is over the horizon. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 311 PM EDT WED APR 25 2018 Rain/drizzle chances will linger into Friday morning. A moisture starved cold front will move through Friday afternoon and could produce a widely isolated shower, but will maintain a dry forecast for right as coverage will be very limited. A shortwave trough will push across the Ohio river valley late Friday night into Saturday. While GFS remains dry with this system, the 12z ECMWF now showing some potential for a few showers in the east on Saturday. Thus, have introduced some small small rain chances in the east on Saturday. A stronger push of colder air will arrive Saturday night with temperatures reaching into the 30s. As high pressure builds in on Sunday, a dry Sunday is expected with decent mixing Sunday afternoon. This will push dewpoints down into the 20s during the afternoon, setting up a very dry day. High pressure will be centered over the region Sunday night with a very cold night anticipated. Given the good mixing on Sunday, conditions should favor more frost formation Sunday night. Thus, have gone ahead and added frost into our eastern valleys and put a mention in the HWO. As the high slides east Monday into Tuesday, return flow will allow a modest warm up with temperatures climbing well into the 70s on Monday and eventually lower 80s for Tuesday and Wednesday. Some low afternoon RH`s will continue to be possible Monday and Tuesday and with winds increasing with the return flow, some more elevated fire danger conditions may develop next week. As the ridge starts to break down, we may start to see some rain chances after the end of the forecast period. However, the majority of the extended forecast will continue to feature dry weather.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT WED APR 25 2018 Flight conditions improve temporarily through the afternoon and early evening. But high pressure building into the region will be responsible for strong subsidence aloft. With ample moisture at the surface thinking is that SC deck will thicken back up and lower through the overnight. Expect potential for several hours of IFR/LIFR CIGS through the late night and early morning period. Condition improve just after sunrise but another storms system moving into the Tennessee Valley will brings showers back into the area by late in the forecast period. Northwesterly winds at 5-10 kts will veer increasingly out of the northeast through the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...RAY

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