Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
436 FXUS62 KKEY 031827 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 227 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1107 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 A mix of sun and clouds continue as we head into the evening hours with radar showing only a few showers around the forecast area. While a cloud line has set up across the Middle and Lower Keys, there has been no indication that any rainfall is occurring and dry conditions should continue overall. A seasonably quiet weather pattern is on tap for the Florida Keys through the extended forecast. While deep tropical moisture is located nearby across the Central and Western Caribbean, this moisture will generally remain parked there, leaving the Keys in a drier airmass. Rain chances are not expected to eclipse 20% as this drier airmass and a generally stable environment nix most shower development before it can lead to measurable rainfall across the island chain. The best chance for rainfall will be Sunday night through Monday night when some of the aforementioned moisture to our south creeps into the Straits. This, combined with possible speed convergence from oscillating wind speeds, will lead to a better environment for shower development. Have retained the previously advertised 20% for these forecast periods. As mentioned, easterly winds will peak and lull through the extended forecast, with higher winds expected overnight, decreasing by the morning. These easterly winds will continue to pump in near to above normal temperatures, with highs in the mid to upper 80s forecast during the day, and lows only dropping into the mid to upper 70s. Dew point temperatures will also slowly inch upwards through next week, with lower to even possibly mid 70 dew points possible by late next week. Summer coming up on us very quickly, with the possibility of another front and some relief becoming more and more unlikely each day. && .MARINE... Issued at 1107 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 High pressure over the western North Atlantic will encourage moderate to fresh easterly breezes for the next several days. Small craft should exercise caution tonight due to increasing winds across portions of the coastal seas. Breezes will tend to peak overnight, followed by lulls in the afternoon. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1107 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Dry, VFR conditions will prevail at EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Near-surface winds will be slightly elevated near EYW while a weak afternoon cloud line remains north of the terminal. Stronger near-surface winds may allow an occasional gust up to 20 knots, but the lack of predictabiltiy or persistence kept them out of the TAFs. CIGs will remain above VFR criteria with FEW to SCT layers below 3 kft. && .CLIMATE... On this date in Keys Weather History, the daily record high temperature of 91F was recorded in 1873. Temperature records in May for Key West date back to 1873. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 76 85 77 85 / 10 10 20 10 Marathon 76 85 77 85 / 10 10 20 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...NB/DP Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP Data Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest