-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
927
FXUS62 KKEY 070825
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
425 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 425 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

Mostly clear and warm conditions prevail along the Florida Keys on
this early Tuesday morning. Radars detect scattered showers over
the distant eastern Straits of Florida, but only a few small
showers near the island chain. Temperatures are hovering in the
upper 70s to near 80, with dewpoints in the lower 70s, and winds
on land from the east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph. Surface
analysis depicts high pressure centered over the western Atlantic,
with the Keys remaining in moderate ESE flow along the
southwestern flank of this high. Aloft, mid-level ridging over the
Gulf of Mexico continues to dominate our local weather regime.
The 00Z Key West sounding reflected this, with a weak inversion
near 10K feet and relatively dry air through the mid levels. The
sampled PW of 1.66 inches was above the 75th percentile for the
date, and recent MIMIC-TPW satellite imagery shows estimated PWs
near 1.5 inches continuing to push westward through the Straits
and across the Keys.

Mostly clear, warm and mainly dry weather will prevail through
the rest of the work week, as mid level ridging persists over the
Gulf of Mexico. There is sufficient low level moisture present to
maintain slight 10 percent rain chances in the forecast today and
tonight, then a drier airmass will move into our area from the
east beginning Wednesday, with moisture depth squashed below 5000
feet. This should result in near zero rain chances across the Keys
from Wednesday through Friday. Temps will remain a few degrees
above normal, with highs in the mid-upper 80s and lows in the
upper 70s to near 80. Dewpoints will gradually creep upward
through the week, and peak afternoon heat indices near 100F will
become likely from Thursday onward.

Heading into the weekend, deep troughing over the eastern CONUS
will squash the subtropical ridge south of our area, with a
surface frontal boundary easing down the Florida peninsula. The
latest guidance consensus continues to stall this front near Lake
Okeechobee, which is expected by climatology as we head into mid
May. Moisture pooling to the south of the stalled front will
promote 20 to 30 percent rain chances during the weekend and into
early next week, with the lack of a suppressing ridge aloft
perhaps allowing for isolated thunder as well. Temps will likely
remain above normal through the end of the forecast period.
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&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 425 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

Overnight observations show decreasing E/SE breezes along the reef
and at Long Key C-MAN, with wind speeds dropping from caution
range of 15 to 18 knots earlier in the night to 12 to 14 knots as
of 4 AM. No marine headlines are currently in effect. From the
synopsis, high pressure over the western North Atlantic will
maintain moderate to occasionally fresh east to southeast breezes
through Thursday night. Breezes will slacken and veer to the south
and southwest Friday into the weekend, as the high shifts
southward over the western Atlantic, and a weak frontal boundary
stalls north of the Florida Keys coastal waters.
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&&

.AVIATION...
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(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 425 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at the EYW and MTH terminals through
the TAF period. Near surface winds will be east to southeasterly
at 10 to 15 knots.
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&&

.CLIMATE...
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On this day in 1937, the daily record rainfall of 4.08 inches was
measured in Key West. Precipitation records for Key West date
back to 1871.
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&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...Jacobson
Aviation/Nowcasts....AP

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