-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
436
FXUS62 KKEY 031827
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
227 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1107 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

A mix of sun and clouds continue as we head into the evening hours
with radar showing only a few showers around the forecast area.
While a cloud line has set up across the Middle and Lower Keys,
there has been no indication that any rainfall is occurring and
dry conditions should continue overall.

A seasonably quiet weather pattern is on tap for the Florida Keys
through the extended forecast. While deep tropical moisture is
located nearby across the Central and Western Caribbean, this
moisture will generally remain parked there, leaving the Keys in a
drier airmass. Rain chances are not expected to eclipse 20% as
this drier airmass and a generally stable environment nix most
shower development before it can lead to measurable rainfall
across the island chain. The best chance for rainfall will be
Sunday night through Monday night when some of the aforementioned
moisture to our south creeps into the Straits. This, combined with
possible speed convergence from oscillating wind speeds, will lead
to a better environment for shower development. Have retained the
previously advertised 20% for these forecast periods.

As mentioned, easterly winds will peak and lull through the
extended forecast, with higher winds expected overnight,
decreasing by the morning. These easterly winds will continue to
pump in near to above normal temperatures, with highs in the mid
to upper 80s forecast during the day, and lows only dropping into
the mid to upper 70s. Dew point temperatures will also slowly inch
upwards through next week, with lower to even possibly mid 70 dew
points possible by late next week. Summer coming up on us very
quickly, with the possibility of another front and some relief
becoming more and more unlikely each day.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1107 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024
High pressure over the western North Atlantic will
encourage moderate to fresh easterly breezes for the next several
days. Small craft should exercise caution tonight due to
increasing winds across portions of the coastal seas. Breezes
will tend to peak overnight, followed by lulls in the afternoon.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1107 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024
Dry, VFR conditions will prevail at EYW and MTH through the TAF
period. Near-surface winds will be slightly elevated near EYW while
a weak afternoon cloud line remains north of the terminal. Stronger
near-surface winds may allow an occasional gust up to 20 knots, but
the lack of predictabiltiy or persistence kept them out of the TAFs.
CIGs will remain above VFR criteria with FEW to SCT layers below 3
kft.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.CLIMATE...
On this date in Keys Weather History, the daily record high
temperature of 91F was recorded in 1873. Temperature records in May
for Key West date back to 1873.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Key West  76  85  77  85 /  10  10  20  10
Marathon  76  85  77  85 /  10  10  20  10
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...NB/DP
Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP Data

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