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000
FXUS62 KKEY 200825
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
425 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 425 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Mostly clear, mild and dry conditions prevail along the Florida
Keys on this early Saturday morning, with radars detecting no
precipitation across the region. Temperatures are hovering in the
lower to mid 70s, with dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70, and
winds on land from the east to southeast at 5 to 10 mph. Surface
analysis depicts weak high pressure over the western Atlantic,
extending westward across the Florida peninsula into the eastern
Gulf of Mexico. Aloft, deep ridging remains in place over the
Gulf, and continues to dominate the weather regime across South
Florida and the Keys. The 00Z Key West sounding found a typical
profile for April, with a strong inversion based near 3500 feet,
PW of 1.15 inches, and very dry mid levels above the inversion.
More recent MIMIC-TPW satellite imagery shows similar estimated
PWs across our region, with higher PWs confined far to our south
over the Caribbean Sea.

Typical late dry season weather will prevail through the weekend,
as the lower to mid level ridge over the Gulf remains in control.
Expect mostly clear and dry conditions to continue, with temps
running a degree or two above normal (highs in the mid 80s and
lows in the mid 70s). Dewpoints will hold in the upper 60s to near
70, so we will continue to avoid the onset of summertime humidity
just yet.

A shortwave trough moving across the Southeastern states will
flatten the ridge Sunday through Monday, with a late season
surface front sliding through South Florida Monday afternoon, and
through the Keys Monday evening. Guidance has trended a bit
stronger with this front during the past 24 hours, although it
still appears likely be dry as it passes through the Keys. We do
expect a northerly wind shift Monday night, with temps and
dewpoints dropping a couple of degrees.

Heading into the middle of next week, a more zonal flow pattern
over the Gulf and Florida should allow for a weaker/higher
subsidence inversion, with just enough moisture present to perhaps
generate isolated showers at times. We will continue to keep an
eye on a mid-level disturbance which some of the guidance
forecasts to move quickly across the Gulf on Tuesday and through
South Florida Tuesday night, as such features in April can
sometimes bring a renegade MCS near or into our area. A drier
airmass should spread back into our area later in the week, as
ridging aloft rebuilds over the Gulf. For now, have continued with
just slight 10 to 20 percent shower chances from Tuesday onward.
Temps will remain near normal, with highs in the mid 80s and lows
in the mid 70s. Dewpoints should hold in the mid to upper 60s
through the middle and later part of next week, along with
increasing easterly breezes beginning around midweek, therefore
outdoor conditions will remain quite pleasant for late April.
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&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 425 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Overnight observations show E/SE breezes decreasing to 10 knots or
less along the reef and at Long Key C-MAN, with seas at Satan
Shoal running just above 2 feet. No marine headlines are
currently in effect, and none are expected through the weekend.
From the synopsis, high pressure over the western North Atlantic
will maintain gentle to occasionally moderate east to southeast
breezes across the Florida Keys coastal waters through the
weekend. Gentle southerly breezes on Monday will become moderate
from the north Monday night, as a weak frontal boundary slides
through South Florida and the Keys. High pressure over the
Southeastern states will bring moderate easterly breezes back to
the Keys waters by the middle of next week.
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&&

.AVIATION...
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(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 425 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

VFR and dry conditions will prevail at the EYW and MTH terminals
through the TAF period. Near surface winds will remain from the
east to southeast near 10 knots.
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&&

.CLIMATE...
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On this day in 1997, the daily record low temperature of 61F was
recorded in Key West. Temperature records for Key West date back to
1872.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...Jacobson
Aviation/Nowcasts....AP

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