-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
599
FXUS62 KKEY 040809
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
409 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 314 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024
High pressure remains centered near Bermuda and reaches southwest
into the Gulf of Mexico. East winds at the Reef average 15 to 20
knots, similar to last night at this time. If this was a couple
months from now the Straits of Florida would be speckled with
nocturnally enhanced showers. The latest KBYX scans note just a
few showers, likely due to the very dry profile (PW ~1.0") sampled
by the 00Z KKEY RAOB. Temperatures are in the upper 70s across
the island chain, a few degrees below the nearshore SSTs in the
lower 80s. It does not feel too bad outside right now with
dewpoints near 70.

.FORECAST...
Water vapor imagery highlights a mid to upper level low digging
equatorward through eastern Cuba. The center of the mean layer
ridging is displaced to the west of Central America, although
500 mb heights near the Yucatan are near 590 dm. The upper low
will remain near or east of the Keys today through Tuesday night.
This will prevent the deep mean layer ridge from sliding east. By
Wednesday or Wednesday night, the mean layer ridge will progress
to the east and finally kick the upper low deeper into the North
Atlantic.

Per the sensible weather elements, moderate to fresh easterly
breezes will persist for the next several days. Shallow
undulations in low-level moisture will maintain slim rain chances.
As the upper low lifts north through Cuba and meanders near the
Keys Sunday night through Monday night, the low level moisture may
deepen somewhat. We continue to highlight 20% chances for this
time frame, which is above climo and the MOS consensus.

As the mean layer ridge takes hold around mid-week, slightly
diminished breezes will take on more of an east-southeast fetch.
Low-level moisture depth will be suppressed to below 900 mb.
Forecast soundings suggest near nil rain chances, but we leaned on
climo and held onto the 10% chances into the extended. Fans of
humidity will be cheering as dewpoints return to the mid to upper
70s by next weekend :|
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&&

.MARINE...
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Issued at 314 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024
There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect
for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. High pressure over
the western North Atlantic will maintain moderate to fresh
easterly breezes for the next several days. Breezes will tend to
peak overnight, followed by lulls in the afternoon.
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&&

.AVIATION...
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(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 314 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024
VFR conditions will prevail at the EYW and MTH terminals through
Saturday evening, with rain chances remaining very low. Brief MVFR
ceilings around 2500 feet will be possible, mainly during the
predawn and early morning hours. Surface winds will remain from
the E to ESE at 10 to 15 knots, with gusts of 15 to 20 knots at
times.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Key West  85  78  85  77 /  10  10  10  20
Marathon  85  78  85  77 /  10  10  10  20
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&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...CLR
Aviation/Nowcasts....Jacobson

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