Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 150840
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
440 AM EDT Wed Aug 15 2018

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
Skies are mostly clear to partly cloudy with only a few showers
dotting our entire region. Temperatures are mainly in the lower
80s along the island chain. Surface wise, an extensive Western
Atlantic ridge axis reaches across South Florida and into the Gulf
of Mexico. On our marine district, an earlier ASCAT and
observations indicate east to southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots
along the Reef Tract and northward, with near 15 knots on the
Straits of Florida.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
A lengthy sub tropical ridge axis extending across South Florida
and into the Gulf of Mexico will lift northward, while the
northern extent of a weak tropical wave migrates through the
Western Caribbean Sea with the northern extent reaching northward
just into our area late today and early tonight. Given the
additonal moisture and low level confluence, will bump up pops
into the chance category for this afternoon and at least up to
midnight. Thereafter, a fairly large area of drier air in the
lower levels will filter into our service area, hence, only
isolated 20 percent pops will be retained through Friday. Near
average temperatures will persist with highs near 90 and overnight
lows mainly in the lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
The deep tropospheric Western Atlantic ridge will sag southward
down the Florida peninsula, before holding firm north of our
region into early next week. Within this deep easterly flow,
pockets of higher moisture associated with minor undulations
followed by drier air will predominate through the period. Because
timing will be problematic, will streamline low chance pops which
are average for this time of year. High temperatures will average
near 90 degrees with overnight lows generally in the lower 80s.

&&

.MARINE...
Gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes can be expected on
the coastal waters north of the island chain with moderate breezes
expected on the waters south of the Florida Keys today. A subtle
wind increase will overspread our entire marine district with a
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headline likely for at least
the Straits of Florida tonight and persisting for at least a
couple of days.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR is expected to continue at EYW & MTH through 16/06z. The best
chance for shower/tstorm impact will occur through 21z, and will
decrease thereafter with incoming dry air. Expect east to
southeasterly flow of 5-10 knots to increase to 10-15 knots after
15z.

&&

.CLIMATE...The daily record low temperature of 70 degrees was
last recorded in Key West. Temperature records date back to 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West 90 83 90 82 / 40 40 20 20
Marathon 92 84 91 82 / 40 40 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...APA
Aviation/Nowcasts....MCLOVIN

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