000
FXUS62 KKEY 190825
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
425 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 425 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Mostly clear, mild and dry conditions prevail along the Florida
Keys on this early Friday morning, with radars detecting no
precipitation across the region. Temperatures are hovering in the
mid 70s, with dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70, and winds on
land from the east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph. Surface analysis
depicts high pressure over the western Atlantic, extending
westward across the Florida peninsula into the eastern Gulf of
Mexico. Aloft, deep ridging remains in place over the Gulf, and
continues to dominate the weather regime across South Florida and
the Keys. The 00Z Key West sounding found a typical profile for
April, with a strong inversion based near 3700 feet, PW of 1.22
inches, and very dry mid levels above the inversion. More recent
MIMIC-TPW satellite imagery shows similar estimated PWs across our
region, with higher PWs confined far to our south over the
Caribbean Sea.

Typical late dry season weather will prevail today and through the
weekend, as the lower to mid level ridge over the Gulf remains in
control. Expect mostly clear and dry conditions to continue, with
temps running a degree or two above normal (highs in the mid 80s
and lows in the mid 70s). Dewpoints will hold in the upper 60s to
near 70, so we will continue to avoid the onset of summertime
humidity just yet.

A shortwave trough moving across the Southeastern states will
flatten the ridge Sunday through Monday, with a very weak surface
front dissipating over South Florida by late Monday. This should
have very little effect on our sensible weather, with breezes
briefly shifting to the north Monday night, and temps/dewpoints
perhaps dropping a couple of degrees. At this time, it appears
that any associated shower activity will probably remain north of
our area through Monday night, and have continued with a dry
forecast through those time periods.

Heading further into next week, a more zonal flow pattern over
the Gulf and Florida should allow for a weaker/higher subsidence
inversion, with just enough moisture present to perhaps generate
isolated showers at times. We will keep an eye on a mid-level
disturbance forecast to move quickly across the eastern Gulf on
Tuesday, as such features in April can sometimes bring a MCS near
or into our area. For now, have continued with just a slight
chance of showers from Tuesday onward. Temps will remain near
normal, with highs in the mid 80s and lows in the mid 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 425 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Overnight observations show E/SE breezes of 10 to 14 knots along
the reef and at Long Key C-MAN, with seas at Satan Shoal running
between 2.5 and 3 feet. No marine headlines are currently in
effect, and none are expected through the weekend. From the
synopsis, high pressure over the western Atlantic will maintain
gentle to occasionally moderate east to southeast breezes across
the Keys coastal waters through the weekend. Gentle southerly
breezes on Monday will become northerly Monday night as a weak
front dissipates over South Florida.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 425 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

VFR and dry conditions will prevail at the EYW and MTH terminals
through the TAF period. Near surface winds will remain from the
east to southeast near 10 knots.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in 1997, the daily record low temperature of 60F was
recorded in Key West. Temperature records for Key West date back to
1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...Jacobson
Aviation/Nowcasts....AP

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