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FXUS63 KLBF 051754
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1254 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather is possible across ncntl Nebraska Monday. The
  primary concern is wind damage and large hail. The tornado
  risk is currently 2 percent, which is low.

- Weather conditions are being monitored for high winds across
  nrn Nebraska Monday. Confidence is too low to warrant a High
  Wind Watch or Warning for this forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Pockets of stratus are developing across wrn KS and ern Colo this
morning. The SREF and to a lesser extent the HREF suggest a sunrise
surprise across wrn Nebraska. This means mixing processes after
sunrise this morning will cause areas of stratus to form. The models
suggest the stratus will mix out this afternoon and then reform this
evening and overnight. The moisture will be deep enough, near 800mb,
for drizzle or light showers late tonight. The approach of a strong
Pacific cold front, falling heights and PV1.5 anomaly early Monday
morning should set off thunderstorms. Moisture will deepen further
to 700mb or higher Monday morning.

The models appear to be a bit faster with the timing of the Pacific
front and the front could be east of ncntl Nebraska by 21z Monday
afternoon. WPC has trended QPF amounts down. Winds aloft are strong
but fairly unidirectional and the models show a fast moving linear
line of thunderstorms stretching north and south from SD through
Nebraska to KS. Wind damage appears to be the primary concern across
ncntl Nebraska followed by large hail. SPC suggested just a 2
percent tornado risk across ncntl Nebraska. It`s worth noting, some
of the CAMs show this line of storms underway as early as 15z Monday
morning. Warm air advection for this system will be aimed at cntl
and ern Nebraska and really won`t be established until 18z. Thus,
the severe weather risk is modest and SPC has assigned a slight risk
for hail and wind.

The temperature forecast today through Sunday is on the warmer side
of the forecast envelop for highs in the 60s to near 70 both days
and lows in the 50s tonight. It uses the RAP and short term model
blend plus bias correction.

The wind forecast Monday is troubling given sub 990mb sfc low
pressure will form across the nrn Plains. This low will deepen to
near 980mb Monday night. The concern is high winds across nrn
Nebraska Monday. Bufkit-GFS suggested high wind gusts from KVTN
west, generally along highway 20. This area will be closest to the
deepening sfc low across the Dakotas. High winds are backed by the
ECM and GFS operational but the CAMs and the NBM 90th percentile
are negative which makes the forecast uncertain.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

980mb sfc low pressure should be established across the nrn Plains
Tuesday morning. The models show a belt of high winds
circulating close to the low center across ern MT, nrn WY and
nrn SD; safely north of wrn and ncntl Nebraska. Windy conditions
are expected across Nebraska but below high wind criteria.
Wrn/ncntl Nebraska gets POPs for shra and thunderstorms
developing in wrap around moisture.

The upper low will slowly fill and drift south through Nebraska
Wednesday for additional shower and thunderstorm development. This
activity should remain mostly isolated to scattered. Lingering cold
air aloft Thursday and Friday will also produce showers and
thunderstorms. Most likely, the rain Tuesday through Friday will be
diurnally enhanced.

Saturday and beyond, the models are in good agreement developing a
winter-type split flow pattern aloft featuring a belt of strong
subtropical winds across the srn States and nw flow across Nebraska
and areas north. This should produce dry weather across Nebraska.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Low stratus across the western zones including the LBF terminal
will gradually scatter early in the period leaving VFR
conditions for both terminals until more expansive stratus
develops tonight. For now, timing of this favors Midnight or
shortly after with a quick drop to IFR and LIFR conditions in
the area. This stratus may also pose the threat for DZ through
the early morning hours Monday. Ceilings will gradually lift as
winds quickly veer to the west around the end of the valid
period as a surging cold front clears the area west to east.
Winds will remain strong over the next 24 hours with gusts in
the 30 to 35 knot range through Sunday night then increasing to
35 to possibly 45 knots, mainly for VTN, after sunrise on
Monday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...NMJ