Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000 FXUS63 KLBF 211726 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1226 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated fire weather concerns today across western Nebraska. This area will be confined to areas west of Hwy 83 across the western Sandhills into the Panhandle. - Cold front will bring a breezy to locally windy day on Friday. Temperatures Friday will be 15 to 20 degrees colder than Thursday. - A strong storm system is expected to cross the area this weekend. This will bring a variety of weather, including potential for accumulating snow and strong winds Sunday night into Monday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 A surface low will deepen today across eastern Wyoming into the northern Nebraska Panhandle. A warm front will lift north through western Nebraska to the east of this feature. Meanwhile a surface trough will pivot eastward across the Panhandle to the south of the low. A surge of dry, warm air will push east into the western Sandhills behind the surface trough. This will bring elevated to perhaps near-critical fire weather conditions to that area this afternoon. The limiting factor appears to be wind. The stronger westerly winds should remain across the far western Panhandle into eastern Wyoming. Still, local gusts of 20-25 mph are possible mid to late afternoon into the western Sandhills. Humidity during this time will be in the 18-22% range creating the heightened fire weather concerns. Shortwave energy will dive southeastward across the Dakotas tonight. The surface low across northwest Nebraska will shift southeastward into eastern Kansas by Friday morning. A cold front will surge south across the area in the wake of the low. Strong post-frontal pressure rises will enhance a brief period of gusty north-northwest behind the front. Winds will then tend to decrease prior to sunrise Friday...before increasing again during the day as mixing increases. HREF members indicate limited chances for precipitation, but several members do show at least some potential for isolated/scattered showers across northern Nebraska. Any precipitation looks to be primarily rain, but a brief mix could occur as colder air begins to move southward into the area after midnight. Cold air advection continues through the day Friday as surface high pressure builds southward through the Dakotas into Nebraska. Highs will be about 15 to 20 degrees colder than Thursday...with low to mid 40s across northern Nebraska and mid 50s far southwest Nebraska. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 All eyes are on a dynamic storm system that moves across the region this weekend into early next week. A deep upper trough will move ashore the west coast Friday night into Saturday. Downstream of the troughing, a broad area of surface low pressure will deepen across WY and CO through the day Saturday. A tightening surface pressure gradient will result across the plains with strong southerly winds developing. Aloft, mid-level warm air advection should result in isolated shower activity during the day Saturday. Initially, moisture is primarily aloft, and associated with a plume of sub- tropical moisture directed at Baja, northeastward across the Four Corners region and into the western high plains. Gulf moisture will be delayed due to a strong cold front that will have made it`s way through the Gulf Friday. Saturday night, surface cyclogenesis begins to focus across eastern CO as the upper trough begins to move into the Rockies. Low- level moisture begins to return northward from the western Gulf. Meanwhile the mid and upper level moisture from the Pacific will overspread the central and southern plains within southwest flow aloft. Mid-level warm air and moisture advection should result in a decent shot of precipitation overnight. Due to the strong mid-levl WAA, temperature profiles will be marginal for much in the way of snow. Surface temperatures look to hover right around the freezing mark across northern Nebraska and mid to upper 30s elsewhere. This should limit the overall freezing rain threat, and most of what we see Saturday night should be rain. Sunday the upper trough emerges into the plains region. Still uncertainty on how it will all evolve. A decent amount of low-level Gulf moisture should be flowing northward into the southern and central plains by this time. This is thanks to deep 985mb surface low that should be located across eastern CO Sunday morning. It appears that Sunday morning through early Sunday afternoon may be a lull period for precipitation. The better mid-level WAA and focus for precipitation will have shifted east by this time. Attention will turn to the deep surface low across western KS Sunday afternoon. An inverted surface trough will extend northeastward from the low into Neb. Just where this inverted trough is located will play a key roll in not only the development of convection, but a band of potentially heavy precipitation Sunday night (including snow). Thinking right now is that the inverted surface trough will be located across the southeast portion of the forecast area during peak heating late Sunday afternoon. As deep lift overspreads the area late Sunday afternoon, convection should develop along the inverted trough. At the same time a strong cold front will be moving quickly southeastward across northwest Neb. The flow aloft should carry the convection northward into an area of increasing FGEN just behind the cold front. This should set the stage for a window of potentially heavy precipitation (including snow) behind the cold front. The 21/00Z ECMWF and ENS suite did shift this band of heavier precipitation eastward somewhat into south central through northeast Neb. Meanwhile the 21/00Z GFS/GEFS focused the band more across southwest into north central Neb. The 21/00Z ECMWF EFI continues to paint decent percentages of a snow event from North Platte to Valentine and points eastward. This will be monitored carefully the next few days. Wind potential is more certain. EFI percentages are high regarding an anomalous wind event Monday. Strong north winds with gusts over 50 mph are likely. Winds don`t last long however as surface high pressure builds in Tuesday. Below normal temperatures Tuesday modify some on Wednesday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
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Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Lingering stratus across portions of south central and central Nebraska with MVFR CIGs should continue to erode this afternoon, with a return to VFR area wide. VFR conditions are then expected to prevail into tonight across western and north central Nebraska. By early tomorrow morning, a cold front will move through the area, with increasing low stratus across northern Nebraska, and local MVFR CIGs will be possible north of Highway 2. Additionally, rain (and at times rain/snow) showers are expected to quickly move along the Highway 20 corridor, though visibilities look to remain VFR with this activity. Winds remain breezy from the south this afternoon, at around 10 to 15kts. Winds then shift to northerly overnight and strengthen with the passage of a cold front, with gusts of 20 to 25 kts anticipated prior to sunrise tomorrow morning.
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&& .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Taylor LONG TERM...Taylor AVIATION...Brown

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