Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS63 KLBF 211726
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1226 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Elevated fire weather concerns today across western Nebraska.
This area will be confined to areas west of Hwy 83 across the
western Sandhills into the Panhandle.
- Cold front will bring a breezy to locally windy day on
Friday. Temperatures Friday will be 15 to 20 degrees colder
than Thursday.
- A strong storm system is expected to cross the area this
weekend. This will bring a variety of weather, including
potential for accumulating snow and strong winds Sunday night
into Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024
A surface low will deepen today across eastern Wyoming into the
northern Nebraska Panhandle. A warm front will lift north through
western Nebraska to the east of this feature. Meanwhile a surface
trough will pivot eastward across the Panhandle to the south of
the low. A surge of dry, warm air will push east into the
western Sandhills behind the surface trough. This will bring
elevated to perhaps near-critical fire weather conditions to
that area this afternoon. The limiting factor appears to be
wind. The stronger westerly winds should remain across the far
western Panhandle into eastern Wyoming. Still, local gusts of
20-25 mph are possible mid to late afternoon into the western
Sandhills. Humidity during this time will be in the 18-22% range
creating the heightened fire weather concerns.
Shortwave energy will dive southeastward across the Dakotas tonight.
The surface low across northwest Nebraska will shift southeastward
into eastern Kansas by Friday morning. A cold front will surge south
across the area in the wake of the low. Strong post-frontal pressure
rises will enhance a brief period of gusty north-northwest behind
the front. Winds will then tend to decrease prior to sunrise
Friday...before increasing again during the day as mixing increases.
HREF members indicate limited chances for precipitation, but several
members do show at least some potential for isolated/scattered
showers across northern Nebraska. Any precipitation looks to be
primarily rain, but a brief mix could occur as colder air begins to
move southward into the area after midnight. Cold air advection
continues through the day Friday as surface high pressure
builds southward through the Dakotas into Nebraska. Highs will
be about 15 to 20 degrees colder than Thursday...with low to
mid 40s across northern Nebraska and mid 50s far southwest
Nebraska.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024
All eyes are on a dynamic storm system that moves across the region
this weekend into early next week. A deep upper trough will move
ashore the west coast Friday night into Saturday. Downstream of the
troughing, a broad area of surface low pressure will deepen across
WY and CO through the day Saturday. A tightening surface pressure
gradient will result across the plains with strong southerly winds
developing. Aloft, mid-level warm air advection should result in
isolated shower activity during the day Saturday. Initially,
moisture is primarily aloft, and associated with a plume of sub-
tropical moisture directed at Baja, northeastward across the Four
Corners region and into the western high plains. Gulf moisture will
be delayed due to a strong cold front that will have made it`s way
through the Gulf Friday.
Saturday night, surface cyclogenesis begins to focus across eastern
CO as the upper trough begins to move into the Rockies. Low-
level moisture begins to return northward from the western Gulf.
Meanwhile the mid and upper level moisture from the Pacific
will overspread the central and southern plains within southwest
flow aloft. Mid-level warm air and moisture advection should
result in a decent shot of precipitation overnight. Due to the
strong mid-levl WAA, temperature profiles will be marginal for
much in the way of snow. Surface temperatures look to hover
right around the freezing mark across northern Nebraska and mid
to upper 30s elsewhere. This should limit the overall freezing
rain threat, and most of what we see Saturday night should be
rain.
Sunday the upper trough emerges into the plains region. Still
uncertainty on how it will all evolve. A decent amount of low-level
Gulf moisture should be flowing northward into the southern and
central plains by this time. This is thanks to deep 985mb surface
low that should be located across eastern CO Sunday morning. It
appears that Sunday morning through early Sunday afternoon may be a
lull period for precipitation. The better mid-level WAA and focus for
precipitation will have shifted east by this time. Attention will
turn to the deep surface low across western KS Sunday afternoon. An
inverted surface trough will extend northeastward from the low into
Neb. Just where this inverted trough is located will play a key
roll in not only the development of convection, but a band of
potentially heavy precipitation Sunday night (including snow).
Thinking right now is that the inverted surface trough will be
located across the southeast portion of the forecast area during
peak heating late Sunday afternoon. As deep lift overspreads
the area late Sunday afternoon, convection should develop along
the inverted trough. At the same time a strong cold front will
be moving quickly southeastward across northwest Neb. The flow
aloft should carry the convection northward into an area of
increasing FGEN just behind the cold front. This should set the
stage for a window of potentially heavy precipitation (including
snow) behind the cold front. The 21/00Z ECMWF and ENS suite did
shift this band of heavier precipitation eastward somewhat into
south central through northeast Neb. Meanwhile the 21/00Z
GFS/GEFS focused the band more across southwest into north
central Neb. The 21/00Z ECMWF EFI continues to paint decent
percentages of a snow event from North Platte to Valentine and
points eastward. This will be monitored carefully the next few
days. Wind potential is more certain. EFI percentages are high
regarding an anomalous wind event Monday. Strong north winds
with gusts over 50 mph are likely. Winds don`t last long however
as surface high pressure builds in Tuesday. Below normal
temperatures Tuesday modify some on Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024
Lingering stratus across portions of south central and central
Nebraska with MVFR CIGs should continue to erode this afternoon,
with a return to VFR area wide. VFR conditions are then expected
to prevail into tonight across western and north central
Nebraska. By early tomorrow morning, a cold front will move
through the area, with increasing low stratus across northern
Nebraska, and local MVFR CIGs will be possible north of Highway
2. Additionally, rain (and at times rain/snow) showers are
expected to quickly move along the Highway 20 corridor, though
visibilities look to remain VFR with this activity.
Winds remain breezy from the south this afternoon, at around 10
to 15kts. Winds then shift to northerly overnight and
strengthen with the passage of a cold front, with gusts of 20 to
25 kts anticipated prior to sunrise tomorrow morning.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Brown