000
FXUS63 KLBF 100555
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1255 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers are possible tomorrow, though little is
  expected in terms of wetting precipitation. With a passing
  surface boundary, winds will become quite gusty Wednesday and
  Thursday.

- Well above seasonal average temperatures settle in late week
  into the weekend, with potential for areas to break 80 degrees
  this weekend.

- Increasing concern for elevated to near critical fire weather
  conditions mid week into the weekend, with temperatures well
  above average, low relative humidity, and breezy conditions.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 327 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Upper air analysis and satellite imagery this morning show two
distinct upper level lows: one over southern Ontario and one over
the borders of Arizona, New Mexico, and Mexico. Further west, an
upper level ridge is noted over the Pacific Ocean off the West
Coast.  Western Nebraska is between these two strong systems, with
westerly flow aloft. At the surface, low pressure systems are
located under or slightly ahead of their respective upper level
lows. The Central Plains reside under mostly high pressure.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 327 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Mostly tranquil weather conditions remain through this evening and
tonight. The rest of the afternoon remains breezy, with occasional
gusts of 20 to 25 mph, with winds and gusts calming after sunset.
Clouds will gradually build in this evening, ahead of a weak surface
boundary. The cloud cover will contribute to keeping overnight lows
in the 30s across the region tonight. As the boundary pushes through
the region tomorrow, winds shift from mostly westerly to north-
northwesterly. Tomorrow will be quite breezy, especially across the
Panhandle, Sandhills, and north central Nebraska, where gusts up to
45 mph are possible.

Along with this passing surface boundary is a chance (30-40%) for
showers across north central Nebraska. Latest CAM guidance is not
very supportive, however, with only a few isolated showers
initiating. Even if showers form, not much is expected in terms of
wetting or measureable precipitation. Will leave the mention of
showers in the forecast, even though it will more than likely be hit
or miss.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 327 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

By Thursday morning, the upper level ridge begins to settle in over
western Nebraska, with northwesterly flow aloft. Temperatures remain
fairly mild Thursday as the upper level ridge continues to establish
across the region. Forecast soundings indicate strong mixing
potential on Thursday, with gusty winds aloft easily mixing down to
the surface. The highest gusts on Thursday will be mainly east of
Highway 83, where gusts may around 35 mph are expected. Afternoon
relative humidity values are expected to drop to around 20-25% for a
few hours, leading to near critical fire weather conditions in fire
weather zones 209 and 219.

By Friday, the upper level ridge is fully established over the
region and remains through the weekend. Under the influence of the
upper level ridge, temperatures will soar well above average, with
temperatures on Friday expected to widespread into the 70s. By the
weekend, temperatures are expected to rise to the upper 70s and
lower 80s across western and north central Nebraska. The signal for
well above average temperatures is quite strong, given the
supportive upper level pattern. Bolstering this confidence is the
latest ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index and Shift of Tails, which points
to high confidence in well above average temperatures across the
region. For reference, average high temperatures this time of year
are in the low 60s, so temperatures this weekend may be nearly 20
degrees or more above average. At this time, do not expect that
these temperatures will approach record levels, with the historic
daily records ranging between 89 to 95 degrees.

Of course, with the return of well above average temperatures, is
also the return of fire weather concerns. Particularly concerning is
the lack of precipitation heading into this weekend. Afternoon
relative humidity values this weekend are expected to drop into the
mid teens to low 20 percent range. However, winds look to remain
below critical thresholds at this time. All in all, it will be worth
keeping a close eye on fire weather conditions late week into the
weekend, as each day could bring elevated to near critical fire
weather concerns with the slightest change in the forecast.

Looking ahead to early next week, a deep upper level low crosses the
Desert Southwest, bringing what looks to be a powerful low pressure
system across the Southern and Central Plains. In fact, the Storm
Prediction Center has already put a 15% chance for severe weather on
Monday for an area from Texas through Oklahoma into northwest
Kansas. This system brings our next solid chance for rain, as rain
showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday into Tuesday as the
low tracks to the northeast. Regardless of the storm threat, this
low brings yet another round of gusty winds across western and north
central Nebraska. As of now, there is pretty decent consensus in
models and ensembles with this low and its track. This will also
merit close watching, as it does seem to be the next best chance for
precipitation for the region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the valid period, though
strong gusty winds will impact aircraft operations.

Winds will remain light until heating mixes the boundary layer
and starts to bring gusts at or above 25kt down to the surface
by mid to late morning. Winds will continue to amplify as a
weak cold front crosses the region this afternoon with potential
for gusts of 30 to 35kt at TAF sites. Widely scattered showers
will accompany the front so will include VCSH for a couple of
hours this afternoon during period of best potential for
precipitation. Winds diminish briefly behind the boundary before
a surge of wind moves down from the north this evening with
potential for gusts to 40kt at KVTN toward the end of the valid
period. However believe this surge of gusts will not impact
KLBF until after this valid period. Low level moisture is
limited with this front so expect any clouds and/or associated
precipitation will still maintain VFR CIGs and VSBYs.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Richie
SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...MBS