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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS64 KLCH 141436
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
936 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 930 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Dewpoints continue to climb into the 60s this morning on
increasing southerly low level flow. Winds will continue to
strengthen through the morning owing to a tightening pressure
gradient between high pressure over Florida and a low moving
across the Great Lakes. The increasing moisture will yield more in
the way of cloud cover through the day, but intermittent sunshine
is expected with highs climbing into the lower 80s. No changes
to the forecast were necessary this morning.

Jones
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 401 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Currently the surface high pressure is centered over the extreme
eastern Gulf Coast with light upper ridging nudging into the area. A
noticeably more humid morning is ongoing with temps in the mid 50s
to low 60s and dewpoints only a few degrees shy of there. Winds are
calm for some areas with light southerly flow along the coast. A few
obs / models are hinting at fog development across the southern half
of our CWA this morning and a few consecutive mornings in the short
term. While the issuance of a Dense Fog Advisory is not expected,
fog could potentially complicate early morning commutes. However,
whatever fog forms will be quick to dissipate shortly after sunrise.

Thanks to southerly flow reintroducing us to warmer and moister gulf
air, we will continually see an uptick in dewpoints and cloud cover,
especially going into the start of the work week. We will also see
an increase in southerly flow just in general as the pressure
gradient tightens between the slowly departing high and an incoming
disturbance. This will be something to keep an eye on, as forecast
sustained wind speeds on Tuesday are expected to reach into Wind
Advisory criteria.

By Tuesday we will also see an upper level low and front move into
the Plains. While a few models depict the front making it as far
south as our CWA, confidence in this is low at the moment. If it
does, it will not be out of the realm of possibility to see showers
and storms for our northern Counties and Parishes. A few of the
storms could be severe, however the best chance for severe weather
appears to stay to our north.

Stigger/87

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 401 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Continued broad ridging will extend into the central Gulf of
Mexico to start the long range. Meanwhile, the upstream pattern
begins to take shape with a very well vertically stacked shortwave
and associated sfc low over the central Plains and Midwest. A
cold front will develop along the trough axis southwards into
Northern Mexico through the evening. The expansive low stalls near
the eastern Great Lakes and weakens during Wednesday while broad
ridging continues along the central / eastern portions of the
Gulf. A more progressive shortwave is forecast to shift inland
from the Pacific over western Canada before deepening south into
NW CONUS by Wednesday afternoon. Together with the ridge across
the western Atlantic, these two features will keep the
aforementioned Great Lakes low stalled with potential of some
retrograde NW as the new shortwave’s surface low organizes over
south central Canada / upper Midwest. The frontal pattern loses
CAA and transitions stationary north of the ARKLATEX region
through Wednesday night. By Thursday morning, the low pressure
complex to over the norther CONUS gradually merges into a larger
surface low with troughing extending down through the Ohio Valley,
connecting with the stationary boundary across the TN Valley and
further upstream to central TX. Hereafter, the northern stream
pattern accelerates with the modified sfc low moving off the
Canadian Maritimes Saturday, while very large subsidence takes
places behind the feature over the Midwest and Central Plains. The
developing ridge over the upcoming weekend will be the main
driver to add some advection, which will help shift the frontal
boundary to the coast of SETX. This pattern remains rather
unsettled trending Friday through the upcoming weekend as there
are many signals for the boundary to stall in this region.
Proximity of the boundary to the area will be the focus of
precipitation and impacts to the area.

Focusing more on the synoptic pattern’s influence on local weather,
again, note the long range does become a bit unsettled with respect
to precipitation and impacts. Generally speaking, southerly breezes
around 10mph with daytime highs climbing into the mid 80s for many
locations with upper 80’s will trend through Friday across central
portions of the LA and landlocked counties across eastern TX.
Precipitation chances remain isolated at best during this period.
Uncertainty in the forecast begins to increase Saturday where
numerous solutions of the frontal pattern evolution have been given.
POP’s do increase into the long range with the national blend of
models grabbing onto the idea of the ridge pattern mentioned above
stalling the front near or offshore SWLA and SETX which would favor
various rounds of precipitation thenceforth. At this time, non of
this guidance is congruent enough to support any evidence for severe
weather or excessive rainfall. However, trending into the early work
week, a better grasp of the presently unsettled long range
precipitation pattern will come to fruition.

Kowalski/30

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

While fog can be seen in a few locations, this is expected to
burn off in the next few hours. Some mid to low level clouds can
be seen across the area this morning with them lifting back into
VFR over the late morning to afternoon period then dropping once
again tonight. For this afternoon, gusty southerly winds will
begin to pick up then taper in the evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 401 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Light onshore flow has become established over the gulf waters.
Over the next few days we will see southerly flow increase as the
pressure gradient tightens between an eastward departing surface
high and an area of low pressure moving across the Southern Plains.
Onshore winds will strengthen further Monday and Tuesday as another
low pressure forms and deepens over the Plains. Precipitation
chances remain negligible until late in the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  82  61  83  66 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  79  65  80  69 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  82  65  82  70 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  81  65  81  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...87